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Services in Minas Gerais Grow Only 0.2% in 2025. Freight Transport and the Minas Gerais Economy Explain Weakness, According to IBGE PMS.
The Services Sector in Minas Gerais ended 2025 with the worst performance in the last four years, recording a growth of only 0.2%, according to the IBGE PMS (Monthly Survey of Services).
The result was released this Thursday (12) and contrasts with the 2.8% expansion observed in Brazil.
The performance occurred throughout 2025 in Minas Gerais and was mainly impacted by the retraction in Freight Transport by rail and road.
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The slowdown is mainly linked to the reduction in harvest outflow and the weaker production pace, factors that explain the loss of dynamism in the Minas Gerais Economy.
Therefore, even with some segments growing, the weight of logistics activities ended up pulling the overall index down.
Freight Transport Explains Weakness in the Services Sector
The main negative driver of Services in Minas Gerais in 2025 was Freight Transport, an activity directly connected to the circulation of commodities and productive logistics.
Throughout the year, monthly indicators showed strong fluctuations: there was stability, six declines, and five advances, highlighting an unstable environment for the Services Sector.
In December, for example, a decline of 0.8% was recorded.
In this context, road freight transport exerted the greatest negative influence on the monthly result.
In addition, three of the five activities surveyed showed a decline that month.
Services to Families and Administrative Activities Also Decline
Among the segments that pressured the Services in Minas Gerais, highlighted were the services provided to families, which fell 3.9% in the annual comparison of December.
There was also a decline in:
Transport, auxiliary services, and postal services: −2.2%;
Professional and administrative services: −2.2%.
These data reinforce that the weakening was not limited to Freight Transport, but affected different links of the Services Sector related to consumption and business operations.
Information and Communication Prevent Negative Result
On the other hand, part of the Minas Gerais Economy managed to cushion the losses.
For the year as a whole, three of the five activities analyzed grew.
The largest advance was observed in information and communication services, with a 3.0% increase.
Internet, telecommunications, and technology played a relevant role in sustaining the Services in Minas Gerais, preventing the overall indicator from closing in negative territory.
Smaller Harvest Reduced Logistics Demand, Says IBGE PMS
According to IBGE analyst Daniel Dutra, the weakening of Freight Transport has a direct relationship with agricultural performance.
He explains that the harvest outflow was lower in 2025 compared to 2024, reducing demand for freight services.
“When the harvest grows and outflow gains strength, the transport sector immediately feels the positive effects.
Similarly, when there is a retraction in production, the negative impact is also direct,” reinforces the analyst.
Thus, as agricultural commodities represent a significant share of the transported cargo, any productive fluctuation automatically affects the Services Sector.
Production Structure Increases Sensitivity of the Minas Gerais Economy
The composition of the Minas Gerais Economy also helps explain the below-average national performance.
According to economist and economic policy advisor Stefan D’Amato, Minas has strong integration between industry, mining, and agriculture.
This makes various services dependent on physical production.
“When industry and commerce lose momentum, the effects quickly propagate to services linked to logistics, operational support, and business management,” he highlights.
Thus, the productive slowdown tends to directly impact the Services in Minas Gerais.
High Interest Rates and Restricted Credit Worsened the Scenario
Another relevant factor was the macroeconomic environment throughout 2025.
High interest rates and more expensive credit reduced investments and increased the cost of working capital for companies.
According to D’Amato, this primarily affected corporate services.
Additionally, states with a greater presence of technology and finance tend to have a more resilient Services Sector — which is not predominant in Minas.
“In Minas, despite the presence of these segments, the relative weight of more traditional and cyclical services is greater, which increases sensitivity during periods of economic fluctuations,” he argues.
Outlook for 2026 Is Still Uncertain
For 2026, the outlook remains undefined for Services in Minas Gerais.
The recovery will depend mainly on two factors:
Trajectory of interest rates;
Resumption of productive investment.
“A potential consistent reduction in interest rates could ease the cost of credit, stimulate business activity, and favor the gradual recovery of the sector.
Still, the scenario tends to be one of moderate recovery,” concludes D’Amato.
Recent Evolution of the Services Sector in Minas
The slowdown is even more evident in the historical series:
2021: 14%;
2022: 11.2%;
2023: 8%;
2024: 2.2%;
2025: 0.2%.
In other words, there is a continuous loss of momentum in the Services Sector, reflecting structural and conjunctural changes in the Minas Gerais Economy.
See more at: Services Sector in Minas Records Worst Result in Four Years
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