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Projections Indicate a Worrying Phenomenon in Minas Gerais: The State’s Population May Decline in the Coming Years. One Reason Is the Low Birth Rate, but There Are Other Factors That May Accelerate This Process and Transform the Reality of Minas Gerais.
An unprecedented population projection raises concerns about the future of Minas Gerais: the state, one of the most populous in Brazil, may lose up to 200,000 inhabitants in the next two decades.
The estimate was made by the João Pinheiro Foundation (FJP), based on data from the 2022 Demographic Census of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and points to profound changes in the demographic landscape of Minas Gerais between 2037 and 2047.
According to FJP, the total population of the state is expected to peak at 21.9 million people in 2037, but will experience a slight decline in the following ten years, reaching 21.7 million by 2047.
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Although the difference may seem small, it represents a historic turning point: it will be the first time Minas shows a statewide trend of population decline.
Regions Most Affected by Population Decline
The population reduction will not occur uniformly.
According to the survey, the first regions to feel the effects of population decline will be Barbacena, Juiz de Fora, and Pouso Alegre, all located in the South and in the Campo das Vertentes.
Starting in 2032, these locations are expected to begin a process of population loss that will intensify until 2037.
In contrast, the regions of Uberaba, Uberlândia, Teófilo Otoni, and Patos de Minas will see a decline occurring later, only in the final years of the analyzed period, around 2047.
The only outlier will be Montes Claros, in the North of the state, which will maintain a constant population growth throughout the projection period.
These demographic transformations reflect a national pattern, but with distinct regional intensities.
Brazil is heading toward a scenario of population aging and declining birth rates, phenomena that are already affecting developed countries and are now consolidating in Brazilian states like Minas Gerais.
Decline in Births and Population Aging Explain the Change
According to the João Pinheiro Foundation, the main reason for the population decline is the decrease in the number of births.
The state will not be able to replenish its population through the birth rate, which, combined with the aging of society, contributes to the trend of decline.
“The base of the age pyramid is narrowing, while the top is widening.
This means we have fewer young people and more elderly”, explained FJP in the released report.
This scenario creates an inverted population pyramid, typical of aging societies with low fertility rates.
In addition to the decline in births, other factors exacerbate the phenomenon, such as the exodus of young people seeking opportunities in large urban centers and the decrease in migration from other states to Minas.
Advances in health and life expectancy increase the proportion of elderly people but do not compensate for the reduction of new generations.
Cities That Will Grow Surprise by Being Outside the Capital Axes
Despite the concerning outlook, some municipalities in Minas are expected to show significant growth in the coming decades.
According to FJP, among the ten cities projected for growth, nine are medium-sized and located in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte.
The highlights are:
- Esmeraldas
- Sarzedo
- Juatuba
- Mateus Leme
- Igarapé
- São José da Lapa
- Conceição do Mato Dentro
- Lagoa Santa
- Nova Lima
These municipalities stand out for their strategic location, proximity to the capital, job opportunities, quality of life, and real estate expansion, factors that attract both new residents and investors.
The trend is for these cities to undergo a process of urban densification, with either orderly growth or, in some cases, growth that is too rapid.
The exception in the ranking is Conceição do Mato Dentro, which, although outside the metropolitan area of BH, has been boosted by investments in the mining sector, especially with projects related to iron and infrastructure.
The city has become strategic in the economic map of Minas and is expected to attract new families and workers in the coming years.
Impacts and Challenges for the Future of Minas Gerais
The population decline will bring various challenges to Minas Gerais, especially in the areas of health, social security, education, and economy.
With an aging society, it will be necessary to adapt public policies to meet a new reality: fewer children in schools, more elderly people needing medical care, and greater pressure on the social security system.
The job market will also feel the effects of the shrinking economically active population, which can impact productivity, tax revenue, and regional economic growth.
The shortage of labor, common in countries with an inverted age pyramid, may become a reality in Brazil sooner than expected.
On the other hand, there are opportunities to rethink the urban development model, focusing on more sustainable, accessible cities that cater to the active aging of the population.
The demographic transformation, although challenging, can also be a chance for innovation and reinvention of urban space.
A Change That Has Already Begun
Although FJP’s projections are centered between 2037 and 2047, the effects of this demographic transition can already be felt.
More recent data shows that the birth rate in Minas has fallen to levels close to 1.6 children per woman, below the population replacement rate (2.1 children per woman).
This indicates that the decline is already underway, and the state needs to prepare now for the impacts that will come.
It is worth noting that Minas Gerais is not alone in this process.
Other Brazilian states, such as Rio Grande do Sul and São Paulo, are also facing projected population declines in the medium and long term, with similar causes related to decreasing birth rates and aging.
Did you ever imagine that Minas Gerais could lose population? In your opinion, is the state prepared to face the challenges of this demographic transformation?
Leave your opinion in the comments!
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