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increase at the beginning of the year reflects seasonal movement after period of intense hiring, while average income hits new historical record despite pressure in the market
The Brazilian labor market started 2026 with a warning sign that draws the attention of specialists and workers. The unemployment rate rose to 5.8% in the quarter ending in February, indicating a reversal compared to previous months.
This information was released by “IBGE”, based on data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD Contínua), which tracks employment dynamics in the country. According to the survey, the result represents an increase compared to the 5.4% recorded in the quarter ending in January and also above the 5.2% observed in the period ending in November.
Moreover, the impact of this movement is visible in the number of people without work. In total, 6.2 million Brazilians sought a job unsuccessfully, which represents an increase of 600 thousand people compared to the previous quarter.
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Still, it is important to highlight that, even with this increase, it is the lowest unemployment rate for a quarter ending in February since the beginning of the IBGE historical series, which started in 2012. In other words, despite the recent increase, the scenario still shows positive structural signs when analyzed from a broader perspective.
why did unemployment increase at the beginning of 2026
To understand this growth in the unemployment rate, it is essential to consider the seasonal factors that influence the Brazilian labor market.
After a period of strong heating at the end of the year, mainly driven by temporary hiring, there is naturally a reduction in the number of vacancies at the beginning of the year. Thus, many contracts are terminated shortly after the holidays, which directly impacts employment indicators.
Sectors such as education and health are especially affected by this movement. This happens because a significant portion of workers in these areas operates under temporary contracts, especially in the public sector, which are often terminated at the turn of the year.
Additionally, this behavior is also repeated in other segments of the economy. According to Adriana Beringuy, coordinator of Household Sample Surveys at IBGE, sectors such as construction and industry show a similar dynamic.
According to the specialist, activities related to buildings and repairs, both in residential and commercial properties, tend to gain strength in the second half of the year. However, at the beginning of the year — a period marked by vacations and lower economic activity — there is a natural retraction in these areas, reinforcing the increase in unemployment at this time.
detailed numbers show complex scenario of the labor market
Although the unemployment rate has risen, the data reveals a broader and nuanced scenario.
The employed population in the country reached 102.1 million people. However, this number represents a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous quarter, which corresponds to 874 thousand fewer people working.
Consequently, the level of employment — an indicator that measures the proportion of employed people relative to the working-age population — stood at 58.4%. This result represents a decrease of 0.6 percentage points in the quarter (compared to 59.0%), although it is still 0.4 points above the figure recorded a year earlier.
Furthermore, other indicators help to better understand the reality of the market:
- Unemployment rate: 5.8%
- Underutilization rate: 14.1%
- Unemployed population: 6.2 million
- Employed population: 102.1 million
- Population outside the labor force: 66.6 million
- Discouraged population: 2.7 million
- Formal employees: 39.2 million
- Informal employees: 13.3 million
- Self-employed workers: 26.1 million
- Informal workers: 38.3 million
Another relevant point is the underemployed population due to insufficient hours, which totaled 4.4 million people in the quarter ending in February, remaining practically stable.
Additionally, the population outside the labor force reached 66.6 million, with a growth of 0.9% in the quarter (an additional 608 thousand people) and 1.4% compared to the same period last year (an additional 942 thousand people).
Among those who gave up looking for work, the so-called discouraged population totaled 2.7 million. The number remained stable in the quarter but showed a significant decrease of 14.9% compared to the previous year, equivalent to 477 thousand fewer people in this condition.
In this context, the discouragement rate stood at 2.4%, stable in the quarter and 0.4 percentage points below the figure recorded the previous year (2.9%).
formality, informality and income show another side of the scenario
When analyzing the type of employment relationship, the data also reveals stability in various segments.
Formal employees in the private sector (excluding domestic workers) totaled 39.2 million, maintaining stability both in the quarter and in the annual comparison.
Similarly, informal workers totaled 13.3 million, also without significant variations during the analyzed period.
On the other hand, self-employed workers reached 26.1 million, remaining stable in the quarter but registering a growth of 3.2% in the year, which represents an increase of 798 thousand people.
The number of domestic workers remained at 5.5 million, with no significant changes in the quarter or in the annual comparison.
Additionally, the informality rate reached 37.5% of the employed population, equivalent to approximately 38.5 million informal workers.
However, one piece of data stands out positively: the average income of workers hit a record high again. The value reached R$ 3,679, with an increase of 2% in the quarter and 5.2% compared to the previous year.
Likewise, the real usual earnings mass, which represents the sum of all salaries paid in the country, reached R$ 371.1 billion. The number remained stable compared to the previous quarter but showed a growth of 6.9% in the year, equivalent to R$ 24.1 billion more.
sectors of the economy show different movements
By observing the data by sector, it is possible to identify important changes in the composition of employment.
In the analyzed quarter, the information, communication, and financial activities sector showed a growth of 4.0%, which represents an additional 504 thousand people employed.
Moreover, the public administration, education, health, and social services segment recorded an even higher increase of 4.5%, equivalent to an additional 808 thousand workers.
On the other hand, the other sectors remained stable, with no significant variations during the period.
Meanwhile, the total labor force of the country, which includes employed people and those seeking employment, totaled 108.4 million in the quarter from December 2025 to February 2026, maintaining stability both in the quarterly and annual comparison.
In your view, is this increase in unemployment just a temporary effect or could it indicate a deeper change in the labor market?
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