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Agro Stocks May Benefit from Selic Cuts Starting in 2026. Learn How Lower Interest Rates Impact the Sector, Which Companies May Stand Out, and What to Expect in the Coming Years.
What to expect for the agro sector amid a possible relief in interest rates? The sector, which represents an essential part of the Brazilian economy, may see its stocks regain value starting in 2026. Experts highlight that the cuts in Selic, currently at 15% per year, should begin gradually, but would already bring positive impacts for both publicly traded companies and producers.
The outlook is that Brazil will maintain global prominence in grains and animal protein, which could open new opportunities for investors.
Agro Grows, but Struggles with High Interest Rates
In 20 years, the agro GDP jumped from R$ 533 billion to R$ 2.72 trillion, according to IBGE. This significant growth has, on the other hand, a fragility: dependence on credit.
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The water that almost everyone throws away after cooking potatoes carries nutrients released during the preparation and can be reused to help in the development of plants when used correctly at the base of gardens and pots, at no additional cost and without changing the routine.
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The sea water temperature rose from 28 to 34 degrees in Santa Catarina and killed up to 90% of the oysters: producers who planted over 1 million seeds lost practically everything and say that if it happens again, production is doomed to end.
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An Indian tree that grows in the Brazilian Northeast produces an oil capable of acting against more than 200 species of pests and interrupting the insect cycle, gaining ground as a natural alternative in soybean, cotton, and vegetable crops.
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The rise in oil prices in the Middle East is already affecting Brazilian sugar: mills in the Central-South are seeing their margins shrink just as ethanol gains strength.
As the sector is highly leveraged, high interest rates weigh on financing costs and hinder investments.
“All agro companies have growth characteristics, so it’s natural that lower interest rates favor them,” explained Antonio da Luz, chief economist at Ecoagro.
Agro Stocks and Selic: Historical Cycles
Studies by the brokerage Rico show that cuts in Selic have had varied effects on agro stocks.
In 2009, at the peak of the subprime crisis, the sector surged more than 74% in the 12 months following the rate cut. In 2016, there was also significant appreciation, reaching 26.8% in a year.
On the other hand, in 2011 and 2023, the behavior was different.
In 2011, the return was modest, while in 2023, even with rate cuts, agro GDP shrank by 2.99%, reflecting price drops in commodities.
These examples show that performance depends not only on interest rates but also on external factors such as global demand and climate.
What to Expect for 2026
According to specialists, the 2026 harvest will still be harvested under high interest rates, but the effects of monetary policy are expected to become clearer in 2027. Nevertheless, the outlook is positive.
There are signs of tighter global production, especially in soy. “Global consumption is expected to increase by about 14 million tons, but production will only rise by 2 million,” Luz highlighted.
In this scenario, Brazilian exports could grow by 10% in 2026, driven by Chinese demand.
For corn, the forecast is for reduced stocks, which should support prices above 2025 levels.
This environment reinforces the attractiveness of agro stocks, especially given Brazil’s relevance as a global supplier.
Which Agro Stocks May Stand Out
For Gabriel Mollo, analyst at Daycoval Brokerage, lower interest rates can unlock expansion plans and increase investor interest. “With lower interest rates, there’s a reduction in financial costs and greater viability for medium and long-term projects, such as expanding planted area and technological modernization,” he said.
Among the companies cited as potential beneficiaries are JBS and Marfrig, from the animal protein sector, which are more leveraged and tend to feel relief more quickly.
Companies like SLC Agrícola, Boa Safra, Três Tentos, and M. Dias Branco may benefit more moderately but with greater security for conservative investors.
Investing in Agro: Opportunity or Risk?
Experts emphasize that Brazilian agro maintains solid fundamentals but still faces short-term challenges such as exchange rate volatility, climate impacts, and commodity fluctuations.
Therefore, investors need to align their risk appetite with their stock choices.
While Mollo advocates caution and gradualism, Luz is more optimistic: “The moment is positive for investing in agro companies, especially given the outlook for 2026.”
The future of agro stocks in Brazil will depend not only on the trajectory of Selic but also on the global supply and demand scenario.
With expectations for interest rate cuts and a favorable environment for exports, the sector may gain new momentum.
For those seeking opportunities in the stock market, agro remains a fertile field, but it requires attention to economic and climatic cycles.
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