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Despite crises in Argentina, Brazil still has higher poverty levels. While Milei promotes drastic adjustments in the neighboring country, Lula focuses on social policies and economic recovery. Will Brazil be able to overcome this historic challenge or will it continue to lag behind Argentina?
As Argentina faces a wave of economic crises, drastic changes in the government and adjustment measures, Brazil, despite making progress, still records higher levels of poverty.
This contradiction between the two countries raises questions and reveals a complex social and economic panorama that goes beyond cold statistics.
At the heart of this scenario is the comparison between the two countries made by FGV Social, which revealed surprising data on the poverty situation in 2022.
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According to research conducted by economist Marcelo Neri, while 10,9% of Argentines lived below the poverty line, in Brazil, this proportion reached 23,5%, almost double.
For the analysis, the study used a single parameter: a monthly income below R$666 per person.
Different scenarios: the film of poverty in the two countries
According to Neri, when newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, the trajectory of poverty in Brazil and Argentina followed different paths in the last decade.
In 2011, under the government of Cristina Kirchner, 9,1% of the Argentine population was in poverty, while in Brazil, with Dilma Rousseff, this number was 31,6%.
During Dilma's first term, there was a reduction in poverty in Brazil, while in Argentina the rates remained stable.
However, in 2015 and 2016, the economic crisis that hit Brazil had clear repercussions on social indicators, increasing poverty.
Across the border, Argentina also saw a significant increase during the government of Mauricio Macri, with a continued rise under his successor, Alberto Fernández.
An exception in this “film” occurred in 2020, during the pandemic, when Brazil implemented Emergency Aid.
During this period, the poverty rate fell to 18,7%, approaching the Argentine number, which was 15,4%. That moment, however, was temporary.
The impact of the Lula and Milei governments in 2024
In 2024, the scenario between countries diverged again.
In Brazil, social policies and projected GDP growth have contributed to reducing poverty, with the rate falling to 27,4%, according to recent data from IBGE.
According to experts, the performance of the Brazilian economy should consolidate this trend of improvement.
In Argentina, on the other hand, the arrival of Javier Milei to the presidency brought ultra-liberal economic adjustment measures, focused on controlling inflation.
Despite some progress in this regard, the policies have had a severe impact on social indicators.
In the first half of 2024, poverty reached impressive % Of the population 52,9, according to Indec (National Institute of Statistics and Census). This represents 15,7 million Argentines, being 4,3 million homes.
Why are the indexes so different?
One of the explanations for the discrepancies between poverty rates is the methodology used for calculations.
In Brazil, the IBGE assesses income and other socioeconomic indicators, while in Argentina, Indec considers factors such as access to food, clothing, transportation, health and education.
According to Neri, the FGV Social historical series tries to balance the differences by adopting the same metric for both countries.
This methodological divergence generated controversy even among leaders Argentine politicians.
Alberto Fernández, Milei's predecessor, criticized the Indec data, claiming that the numbers were inflated by erroneous answers from those interviewed.
“I don’t believe that 40% are poor,” Fernández said before leaving power. Milei, upon taking office, kept economist Marco Lavagna at the head of Indec, but also did not hold back on criticizing the organization.
The challenge of balancing fiscal and social responsibility
According to analysts, Argentina currently faces the dilemma of balancing necessary fiscal adjustments with effective social policies.
“The combination of fiscal and social responsibility is the biggest challenge”, explains Neri.
For the economist, this balance is essential to prevent the most vulnerable population from continuing to be the most harmed by economic policies.
In Brazil, although poverty is still higher in proportional terms, the country shows signs of consistent improvement.
,The expectation of economic growth and the continuity of policies aimed at income redistribution promise to further reduce the rates in 2024.
An ever-changing landscape
The most recent data shows that, while Brazil is managing to partially reverse its poverty indicators, Argentina, undergoing drastic adjustments, is facing a worsening situation.
However, the challenges remain huge for both countries.
The fight against poverty requires not only effective economic policies, but also long-term social strategies.
And you, do you think Brazil is on the right track to combat poverty or do we need even bolder policies? Comment below!
As long as Brazil does not have a serious policy to contain spending, this reduction in poverty will be temporary and will not solve the real problem. Public spending generates inflation, and inflation makes the poor poorer.
This data contradicts Indec, Argentina's official research institute, which records poverty in more than 50% of the Argentine population…
And what did you want? Argentina has a population the same size as Flamengo's fans and Brazil has 210 million people, would you, ****, want the number to be bigger? Of course not, you cloth passer.