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Proposal to Increase Ethanol Blending in Gasoline Rekindles Debate on Prices, Self-Sufficiency, and Impact on Fuel Market in Brazil.
The President of the Chamber of Deputies, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), advocated to raise the mandatory blending of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline to 35%.
The proposal was presented at the opening of the 25th International Conference on Sugar and Ethanol, held in São Paulo, and aims to reduce final pump prices and enhance the country’s energy security.
Recent Increase Approved by CNPE
The statement comes just a few months after the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) approved the increase in ethanol content in gasoline from 27% to 30%, effective from August 1, 2025.
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In the same resolution, the board also authorized the increase of biodiesel blending in diesel from 14% to 15%.
According to the government, the change helps stabilize the market amid geopolitical uncertainties and simultaneously reduce dependence on imported derivatives.
During the event, Motta linked the expansion to 35% to the long-term trajectory of the sugar-energy sector.
In an indirect speech, he stated that Brazil has the technological base and increasing supply of ethanol, conditions that, when combined, allow for discussions about a new blending level, exceeding the current E30.
He also emphasized that the biofuels policy has economic and environmental effects and that the legislature monitors the issue to ensure regulatory predictability.
Price Reduction Projections and Self-Sufficiency
The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) had already estimated, during the transition to E30, a potential drop of up to R$ 0.11 per liter in gasoline prices, considering the tax differential and the cost of ethanol compared to fossil fuel.
At the time, Secretary of Oil and Gas, Pietro Mendes, added that raising the ethanol content paves the way for gasoline self-sufficiency, by reducing the need for imports and expanding the use of a domestically produced input.
In addition to the direct impact on consumers’ wallets, increasing the ethanol content is seen as a tool for shielding against international shocks.
The persistent tension in the Middle East, with risks in the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of the world’s traded oil passes through, keeps the market vigilant about possible logistical disruptions and fluctuations in barrel prices.
In this context, every additional percentage of biofuel in the blend tends to alleviate Brazil’s exposure to sudden variations in international prices.
Gradual Blend Evolution and Diesel Timeline
Although the agenda has progressed, the government calibrated the diesel timeline according to the situation.
In February, the CNPE temporarily maintained B14; in June, it confirmed the adoption of B15 starting in August.
The gradual evolution, according to industry experts, allows for adaptation of the supply chain, performance verification in fleets, and monitoring of potential effects on logistics costs and raw material availability.
In the case of gasoline, the adoption of E30 results from technical tests and an assessment of supply.
The national production of cane ethanol and the advancement of corn ethanol have sustained supply, peaking during the harvest in the Southeast and expanding plants in the Midwest.
Moreover, the combination of biofuels with improvements in vehicle efficiency has been pointed out as a means of short-term decarbonization in light transport, alongside the growth of electric and hybrid mobility.
Technical Challenges and Sustainable Availability
The defense of E35 brings back some sensitive points in the debate.
One of them is the sustainable availability of ethanol throughout the year, considering off-seasons and climate variations.
Another is the engine compatibility with higher content, even in vehicles designed to operate with gasoline C and E gasoline.
Automakers, mills, and the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels (ANP) usually assess, together, performance parameters, emissions, cold-start capability, lubrication, and durability for each change in specifications.
Tax Impacts and Regional Price Variation
There is also the tax component.
The difference in tax burden between ethanol and gasoline affects the pass-through to consumers.
When ethanol maintains a relative advantage, its higher participation in the blend tends to pull the average price down.
On the other hand, changes in ICMS, adjustments in single-phase rates, or price fluctuations at the mill can diminish this advantage.
Experts warn that the final effect depends on factors such as regional logistics, the competitiveness of hydrated ethanol at gas stations, and commercial strategies of distributors.
Political Repercussions and Long-Term Goals
In the political arena, the President of the Chamber’s signaling gives traction to the issue in a year of processing projects related to Future Fuel and goals for emission reductions.
Members of Congress and the Executive branch have advocated for the development of a predictable blending roadmap, with multi-annual targets and evidence-based review mechanisms.
The intention, according to sector insiders, is to avoid fluctuations that could affect investments in agriculture, industrialization, storage, and distribution.
The sugar-energy sector received the speech as a step to keep the issue on the agenda.
Mills and producers highlight that the agricultural productivity of sugarcane and industrial efficiency have increased, which enhances the supply of anhydrous without structurally pressuring the food market.
Additionally, corn ethanol has gained importance, diversifying the source of the input and diluting climate risks concentrated in a single crop.
Regulation and Fuel Quality
Meanwhile, the discussion about gasoline quality and standardization remains.
The ANP sets parameters for gasoline C and anhydrous ethanol, such as octane rating, water content, and contaminants, to ensure performance and engine protection.
An eventual migration to 35% would require a new round of testing, technical reports, and public consultation before any decision by the CNPE, a step considered standard in the regulatory process for fuels.
Even with the prospect of price drops, consumers should monitor regional balances.
In states with strong local production and blending, the pass-through is usually faster.
In areas dependent on long-distance transportation, the gains may take longer to materialize due to logistical costs and existing stocks.
Furthermore, the pricing policy of Petrobras and international quotations remain relevant variables for the final pump price.
Market Outlook for Fuels
For now, what changes is the size of the debate.
With E30 in effect since August and B15 approved, it becomes plausible to discuss higher targets, provided they are supported by supply capacity, technical assessments, and regulatory predictability.
The proposal by Hugo Motta, focusing on E35, pushes the agenda for the next round of evaluations, positions Parliament as a central actor, and tests the limits of balance between cost, energy security, and emissions.
To what extent can increasing ethanol content consistently translate into cheaper fuel for drivers in the short term?
O brasileiro tem que aprender a se unir e se defender em oposição à determinação como esta. Basta boicotar a gasolina e abastecer 100% com etanol, em 15 dias causa colapso nas refinarias que não teriam como estocar combustível. Aí apredem a ouvir a opinião dos consumidores antes de decidir por nós!
Extremamente ignorante chucro, ****, sem cultura, não tem conhecimento técnico,
Isso que dá colocar pessoas sem conhecimento técnico, isto e, ignorantes que não sabem nada….só falam mer..
Vai estudar seu chucro!!!