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Petrobras is stepping up its search for new oil and gas reserves abroad, targeting Africa and Latin America to secure the future of its operations. Experts assess the impacts of this expansion and the challenges the company faces to avoid repeating past mistakes.
While attention is on aimed at Brazil, Petrobras is shaking up the oil and gas market by expanding its operations to new continents.
The state-owned company's move to seek strategic reserves outside the country reflects not only a need to replenish stocks, but also a direct response to the alarming forecasts for the future of Brazilian reserves.
But is this new international offensive the solution to keeping Brazil self-sufficient in energy or yet another risk that could compromise the company's future?
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According to recent information, Petrobras has accelerated its international expansion plan to secure new oil and gas reserves.
In recent months, the company has made important acquisitions, including interests in fields in South Africa, new discoveries in Colombia and the opening of a strategic office in China, as reported by CNN Brazil.
But this is just the beginning of a much more ambitious strategy.
Global expansion and new frontiers for Petrobras
Petrobras' race to secure new reserves outside Brazil is not recent, but it has taken on new momentum.
The company is now looking at countries such as Namibia and São Tomé and Príncipe, where it participated in exploratory blocks in 2023.
Furthermore, the state-owned company has already initiated moves to increase its presence in Latin America, mainly in the Vaca Muerta region, in Argentina, and in natural gas operations in Bolivia.
Another important focus is the rapprochement with major players in the energy market, such as India and Guyana.
These countries are seen as strategic allies, especially given the potential for new reserves and commercial partnerships that could guarantee Petrobras an increasingly prominent role on the global stage.
As reported by the company, These new frontiers are fundamental to the long-term survival of the state.
Although Brazil's oil reserves are still robust, with 10,9 billion barrels of oil equivalent in 2023, these figures could start to decline in the next decade if there are no new discoveries or field revitalizations.
The Equatorial Margin: a bet for Brazil's future
While Petrobras advances abroad, the company also keeps its eyes on Brazil.
The Equatorial Margin, an area that stretches along the country's northern coast, is seen as the new great promise of oil reserves.
The government estimates that the region could contain up to 30 billion barrels, almost three times the state-owned company's current reserve volume.
However, exploration of this region has encountered obstacles, especially due to environmental issues.
The mouth of the Amazon, one of the most promising areas, still depends on environmental licenses that are being analyzed by Ibama.
Meanwhile, Petrobras continues to explore other areas of Brazil, such as Rio Grande do Norte and blocks in the south of the country, where licensing issues are less complicated.
Lessons from the past and challenges ahead
Petrobras’ international expansion strategy is not new.
During the first terms of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the state-owned company had already expanded its global presence with investments in the United States, Argentina and Bolivia.
However, corruption scandals, such as those that occurred during the purchase of the Pasadena Refinery in the United States, left deep scars on the company.
In subsequent governments, especially under Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro, Petrobras opted for an international retraction, selling assets abroad and focusing on its operations in Brazil.
This change was aimed at reducing the company's debt, which had soared in previous years, and improve portfolio efficiency.
Now, with a new stance, the state-owned company seeks to reinvent itself abroad, but the ghosts of the past still haunt investors.
According to Gustavo Cruz, chief strategist at RB Investimentos, Petrobras has focused on areas where it already has expertise, such as deep-water oil drilling and exploration.
He warns that, as long as the company focuses on its specialty, the expansion will be viewed positively by the market.
However, adventures into less familiar terrain can cause distrust, especially because of past mistakes.
What does the market think about the new international offensive?
Despite historical fears, Analysts are more optimistic about this new phase of Petrobras.
Ilan Arbetman, from Ativa Investimentos, believes that the focus on areas such as the Equatorial Margin and new geographies in Africa is a necessary move to guarantee the future of the state-owned company.
He points out that, unlike past investments, the company now appears focused on its core business: oil exploration and production.
Additionally, we bring changes in Petrobras' governance and in Brazilian laws, after Lava Jato, have given the market more security.
According to Arbetman, the times when the state-owned company was involved in major scandals seem to be behind us, and current rules make it difficult to repeat mistakes like the one in Pasadena.
Moreover, Vitor Sousa, from Genial Investimentos, maintains a more cautious stance.
He warns of the risks of Petrobras being used as a foreign policy tool, which could divert the company's focus from its main mission and affect long-term profitability.
The future of Petrobras and the impact on investors' pockets
Although the international expansion plan brings new opportunities for Petrobras, there are direct impacts on the company's shareholders.
Significant investments abroad may temporarily reduce the volume of dividends distributed.
However, as Ilan Arbetman explains, if these investments are successful, the increase in cash generation could offset this reduction in the future.
Petrobras is at a crossroads, and the success of its international strategy could determine not only the company's future, but also Brazil's role in the global energy market.
Will this expansion bring the expected returns or is it yet another risk that could compromise investors' profits?
With all these new international bets, do you think Petrobras is on the right track or is it taking too many risks? Comment below!
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