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After Trump gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the route for 20% of the world’s oil, the barrel skyrocketed to $117, dropped 13% with a truce, and the Central Bank had to inject $2 billion to stabilize the dollar.

Written by Douglas Avila
Published on 11/04/2026 at 21:46
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Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to soar from $70 to $117 a barrel in weeks, a 5-day truce dropped Brent by 13% in a single day, and the Brazilian Central Bank had to inject $2 billion in currency swaps and expand contracts to 60,000 while Petrobras cut fuel quotas.

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran on April 7, 2026, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, geopolitical tension skyrocketed oil prices in Brazil and worldwide.

On the same day, Israel attacked a petrochemical complex in Shiraz, Iran. Thus, WTI oil reached $113.85 (up 1.28%) and Brent hit $111.80 at its intraday peak.

The barrel had risen from $70 before the conflict in February to peaks above $117 — a 61% increase in just a few weeks.

Oil barrels with Brent price increase chart

Oil fell 13% in one day after a 5-day truce between the US and Iran

After the ultimatum, Trump announced via Truth Social a 5-day suspension of attacks on Iranian infrastructure. He cited “very good and productive talks” in the two days prior.

The market reaction was immediate. Brent fell 13% to $94.80 (R$ 488.48) and WTI plummeted more than 15% to $95.75 (R$ 493.40).

However, even after the drop, prices remained 35% above the pre-war level of $70 per barrel. Therefore, the relief was partial.

The President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, declared that “millions are ready to sacrifice” for the country in response to Trump’s ultimatum.

Diplomatic negotiation table between the US and Iran on ceasefire

Central Bank injected $2 billion and expanded swaps to 60,000 contracts

In Brazil, the impact was direct on the exchange rate. Thus, the Central Bank offered up to $2 billion in rollover lines and expanded currency swaps to 60,000 contracts.

Additionally, Asian markets fell more than 3% and Brazilian futures interest rates rose with the dollar under pressure.

As a consequence, bets on cuts to the Selic rate were reduced to about 1 percentage point until the end of the cycle. Therefore, the cost of credit in Brazil also felt the impact of the crisis.

Trading screens showing dollar exchange and oil futures

Petrobras cut quotas and Vibra will import to avoid shortages

Petrobras reduced the monthly fuel quota for April 2026. Thus, Vibra Energia (VBBR3) announced plans to import additional volumes to ensure supply.

Moreover, the federal government issued a package of R$ 1 billion with support measures for airlines and penalties for abusive prices of biodiesel and aviation kerosene.

Genial Investimentos assessed that “the news is marginally negative for the short-term thesis of oil companies exposed to Brent, as it reduces part of the geopolitical risk premium.”

To understand how the government has already created a R$ 14 billion package to secure diesel, see the full report.

Brazilian oil refinery operating at night

20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait that Iran closed

The Strait of Hormuz is the route through which about 20% of all the world’s oil passes. Therefore, its closure by Iran created severe uncertainties about global supply.

Before the conflict, the barrel was around $70. With the escalation, it reached peaks of $117 (WTI) and $111 (Brent). After the truce, it retreated to $94–95 — still 35% above pre-war levels.

However, volatility persists. The Strait remains under tension and new rounds of negotiation could alter prices at any moment.

Still, the crisis is comparable to the largest in history: Gulf War (1990, Brent doubled) and the Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022, Brent above $120). Brazil, despite self-sufficiency in crude oil, depends on the import of derivatives.

Also check how Petrobras invests in underwater technology to maintain production.

Brazilian gas station with drivers concerned about prices

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Douglas Avila

I've been working with technology for over 13 years with a single goal: helping companies grow by using the right technology. I write about artificial intelligence and innovation applied to the energy sector — translating complex technology into practical decisions for those in the middle of the business.

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