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In The Third Quarter Of 2021, Gasoline Demand Is Expected To Be 190 Thousand Barrels Per Day Lower Than In The Same Period Of 2019, Pre-Pandemic Year
The S&P Global Platts Analytics Oil Market Forecast Report for Latin America indicates that the decline in mobility is still a challenge for the recovery of gasoline demand in the region’s countries in the short term. COVID-19 variants and still relatively low vaccination rates are factors impacting mobility and preventing fuel demand from reaching 2019 levels, the pre-pandemic year.
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According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, a leading provider of information and pricing for commodity and energy markets, gasoline demand in Latin America is expected to be 285 thousand barrels a day higher in the third quarter of 2021 compared to 2020, but 190 thousand barrels per day lower than the same period in 2019. For the fourth quarter, demand is expected to continue below pre-pandemic levels by around 130 thousand barrels per day.
Gasoline Demand in Brazil
In Brazil, adverse weather conditions limited the sugarcane harvest this season, making gasoline “C” (which contains 27% ethanol) a more competitive fuel for drivers compared to ethanol itself.
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Petrobras finds high-quality oil in the pre-salt at 113 km from RJ and reignites expectations about strategic reserves in the Campos Basin.
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Ocyan opens registrations for startups focused on innovation in the oil and gas sector and will select projects for Innovation Day with the support of Nexio.
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Petrobras announces new oil discovery in the pre-salt of the Campos Basin and reinforces Brazil’s prominence with high-quality reserves that can increase production and energy revenues.
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Alert in the fuel market: Analysts and a former director of ANP warn that oil prices may worsen in the coming months due to global instability.
According to the report, in the first half of 2021, sales of gasoline “C” were 50 thousand barrels per day higher than in 2020, but still 25 thousand barrels per day below the same period in 2019. Demand in the third quarter of 2021 is expected to grow by 20 thousand barrels per day compared to last year, but the projection is that it will still be 60 thousand barrels per day below 2019.
The report also shows that in the third quarter of 2021, only diesel demand is expected to exceed the figures from 2019. This is due to higher industrial production, economic growth, retail sales, and also cargo transportation. The projection is that during this period, demand for the fuel will be 20 thousand barrels per day higher.
About S&P Global Platts – As the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for commodity and energy markets, S&P Global Platts has clients in over 150 countries who rely on the company’s expertise in news, pricing, and analysis to provide greater transparency and efficiency to the markets. S&P Global Platts’ coverage includes oil and gas, power, petrochemicals, metals, agriculture, and shipping. S&P Global Platts is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies, and governments to make decisions with confidence.
Oil Drops Under Heavy Selling Pressure Reaching US$ 66 A Barrel
The price of oil drops to less than US$ 66 a barrel on Thursday, its lowest level since May, pressured by concerns about weaker demand due to rising COVID-19 cases, a stronger U.S. dollar, and a surprising increase in U.S. gasoline inventories. In Brazil, it puts pressure on Petrobras to lower gasoline prices, which saw another adjustment of 3.3% on the last day, August 12.
After five sessions of declining trades on ICE Europe, oil drops under heavy selling pressure, unwinding October positions, the driver contract.
Petrobras Is Pressured to Lower Gasoline Prices as Oil Prices Fall and Ethanol Gains Strength with Parity Above 70%
In this circumstance, the market’s expectations regarding any gasoline reduction hang over Petrobras, following the 3.3% increase on August 12, and raises concerns about ethanol.
Even if today’s drop could be temporary, the fall is steep for oil to return above US$ 70 a barrel in the coming sessions, especially since the alert regarding the advancement of COVID is expected to continue causing stress among speculators with derivatives.
Ethanol prices had seen two significant increases at the plants in the last two weeks and were already at a parity above 70% compared to the competing fuel.
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