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Rumors About Possible Exclusion of Brazil From the Swift System Circulate on the Internet, But Experts Remember That Only Iran and Russia Have Faced Such Sanctions in Global Threat Scenarios
The debate about the possibility of Donald Trump disconnecting Brazil from Swift, the main international payment system, gained traction on social media following recent political speculations. However, the measure would be difficult to execute, as the mechanism is governed by international rules and does not belong to the United States.
The Swift — an acronym for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication — is headquartered in Brussels and operates under Belgian law. Established in 1973, the system handles more than 53 million operations between banks worldwide daily, ensuring efficiency and standardization in international transactions.
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Although the United States has strong influence in the entity, due to the weight of its economy and the largest number of representatives in management, Swift defines itself as a global cooperative structure of a neutral nature. This means that no isolated authority, not even the American president, has the power to unilaterally decide on exclusions.
Only Iran and Russia Were Disconnected From Swift
Since the establishment of the system, only two countries have faced suspension of access: Iran and Russia. Iran was disconnected twice, in 2012 and 2018, due to non-compliance related to the nuclear program. Russia faced disconnection in 2022, after the invasion of Ukraine, in a decision made jointly by Western allies.
In Brazil’s case, for a sanction of this magnitude to occur, the country would need to be recognized as a threat to the international system, something that not even the biggest internal critics of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva consider plausible.
As reported by GZH, not even Donald Trump, known for his hardline foreign policy positions, suggested the exclusion of Brazil, which experts consider a baseless hypothesis.
Consequences of a Possible Disconnection
If a country is excluded, its banks face enormous difficulties in conducting international payments. This does not hinder trade, but increases costs and delays financial operations, making transactions less competitive in the global market.
Russia, even after exclusion, remained active in international trade. To circumvent restrictions, it developed the Financial Messaging System and began using CIPS, the Chinese equivalent to Swift.
In this scenario, experts warn that Brazil could accelerate strategic closeness to China, strengthening alternative payment systems. The issue was even raised by journalists to Trump in a recent interview.
The Position of the United States and the Impact on Brazil
The world’s dependence on Swift is still significant, but alternatives have gained traction. The growth of the Chinese CIPS system is seen as a direct challenge to the supremacy of the dollar in international trade, creating tensions between Washington and Beijing.
When questioned about a potential sanction against Brazil, Trump avoided direct statements. Analysts highlight that unilateral measures could undermine the US’s own position, opening space for the expansion of competing systems.
Despite the speculations, there is no concrete evidence that Brazil is at immediate risk of such sanctions. The circulation of false or exaggerated information on social media has fueled the debate around threats that, so far, do not hold up to facts.
Neutrality of Swift and Political Context
The statute of Swift reinforces the commitment to neutrality, a safeguard to prevent the system from becoming a political tool of specific governments. Recent experiences with Russia showed that sanctions of this magnitude require multilateral decisions and international consensus.
For Brazil to be targeted by such a measure, a scenario of diplomatic rupture and global recognition that the country poses a danger to the world order would be necessary, something that has not existed so far.
Thus, while disconnection from Swift is a serious and high-impact scenario, it remains distant from Brazil’s reality. The speculations reinforce more the environment of internal political competition than a real threat to the country’s financial system.
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