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Global Study Exposes Accelerated Decline in Investor Confidence in Brazilian Mineral Sector
Brazil has experienced an alarming drop in international perception of its environment for mining investments. This information is found in the Annual Survey of Mining Companies 2024, published in June by the Fraser Institute, a renowned independent research center based in Canada.
According to the study, the country fell 27 positions in the Investment Attractiveness Index in just one year, dropping from 29th place in 2023 to 56th in 2024, among 82 jurisdictions assessed. This significant decline accompanies a drop of more than 12 points in the Policy Perception Index, revealing a substantial deterioration in the regulatory, tax, and security environment.
The warning, therefore, comes not only from numbers but from the perception of those who decide where to invest billions in mining projects worldwide.
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International Evaluation Reveals Significant Retreat of Brazil
The Fraser Institute has conducted one of the most respected surveys on mining on the planet annually since 1997. Its goal is to measure how political and regulatory variables affect the decisions of companies and investors. The survey combines the geological potential of each region with the legal and political environment, generating strategic indicators for governments and companies.
In 2024, Brazil scored 51.23 points on the Investment Attractiveness Index, plummeting 17.27 points compared to 2023. For comparison, in 2022 the country held 25th place, showing that the decline was not an isolated event but part of a continuous process of loss of competitiveness.
At the same time, Brazil’s Policy Perception Index reached only 48.66 points in 2024, placing the country in 53rd position among the 82 evaluated. This means that the perception of the stability and predictability of Brazilian public policies has deteriorated even further, indicating increasing distrust among international decision-makers.
Transparency and Regulatory Safety Continue as Major Obstacles
The study details the main concerns expressed by respondents with specific knowledge about Brazil. Among the points that worsened the most, there is a highlighted uncertainty regarding the administration and application of existing regulations, which increased by 29 percentage points compared to the previous year.
This growth demonstrates that investors see a lack of clarity and predictability in how rules are implemented. Another negative highlight was the Brazilian tax regime, whose complexity and instability generated a 22 percentage point increase in concerns.
The burden of taxes, combined with legal insecurity regarding changes in tax rules, drives away long-term investments in the sector. Safety was also a critical factor, with a 21 percentage point increase in overall concern.
Although the report does not specify whether this refers to physical, legal, or operational safety, the data reveals a growing sense of risk among global players.
Brazil’s Position Deteriorates in Latin American Scenario
In the context of South America, Brazil ranks among the worst performers in the region. It is below countries such as Chile and Peru, which have improved their attractiveness by enhancing their legal and institutional environments. Meanwhile, Guyana has stood out among the ten most attractive countries in the world for mining, according to the 2024 survey.
On the other hand, Brazil only surpasses countries like Bolivia, Colombia, Suriname, and Ecuador, which continue to rank among the least attractive globally. Jurisdictions like San Juan in Argentina have also gained positive attention, while Brazil has lost competitiveness in direct comparison.
Warning Signs and Path to Reverse the Negative Scenario
According to the Fraser Institute, Brazil’s decline in attractiveness in 2024 is a direct reflection of public policies viewed as ineffective or unstable. This adverse environment poses a risk to new investments in mineral research and the expansion of mining activities, which are essential for economic growth and the generation of skilled jobs.
The warning is echoed by Luis Maurício Azevedo, president of the Deliberative Council of the Brazilian Association of Mineral Research and Mining (ABPM). He emphasizes that the country needs to react firmly if it wants to regain international confidence, stressing that critical minerals are strategic for the energy and technological future.
To change this scenario, it will be necessary to prioritize addressing the following points:
- Review of the regulatory framework, focusing on stability and legal clarity
- Simplification of the tax regime, reducing costs and fiscal uncertainties
- Enhancement of legal and operational safety, ensuring predictability for investors
- Strengthening dialogue between the public and private sectors, promoting mutual trust
Stagnation May Compromise Brazilian Mineral Potential
Brazil is known for its immense geological wealth. However, potential is meaningless if the institutional environment does not keep pace. The continued drop in the Fraser Institute rankings shows that the country urgently needs to improve its public governance in the mineral sector.
If not, stagnation could compromise the exploitation of strategic resources and undermine the energy transition and national competitiveness.
Finally, it is worth highlighting that the report does not condemn Brazil to irrelevance but indicates a clear path for correction. If reforms are implemented, the country could regain positions and once again be among the preferred destinations for mining investment.
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