Portuguese 
The authorization was announced by Lula after a meeting with Yamandú Orsi in New York. The decisive step is still pending: China manages these quotas independently and has not yet commented on the transfer.
President Lula stated that Uruguay authorized Brazil to use the surplus of the Uruguayan beef export quota to China in 2026. The announcement was made in a post on X, following a meeting with Uruguayan President Yamandú Orsi in New York on September 21, 2026, according to Globo Rural.
“We discussed issues on the bilateral agenda, especially infrastructure and agricultural trade. I thanked the authorization granted to Brazil to utilize the surplus of the Uruguayan beef export quota to China,” Lula wrote.
The volume under discussion is about 80,000 tons
According to sources cited by Globo Rural, about 80,000 tons could be transferred to Brazil. This volume is roughly equivalent to one month of Brazilian shipments to China.
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To give a clearer perspective on the number, Exame estimates that these 80,000 tons correspond to around 320,000 to 400,000 cattle heads. While this volume may not drastically change the year for Brazilian livestock, it is significant at a time when access to the main buyer is blocked.
Why Brazil Needs the Quota from Another Country
Since 2026, China has limited beef purchases through a safeguard mechanism that establishes quotas by supplying country. Within the quota, the standard tariff applies. Beyond that, an additional fee comes into effect.
For 2026, Beijing set 1.106 million tons for Brazil, 511,000 tons for Argentina, and 324,000 tons for Uruguay. The issue for Brazil is straightforward: this quota has already been exhausted.
Outside the quota, the tax burden reaches 67%
The additional tariff applied to the volume that exceeds the quota is 55%. Added to the 12% rate already imposed on Brazilian beef, the total burden reaches 67%.
At this level, exporting becomes economically unfeasible for most slaughterhouses. In practice, once the quota is exhausted, the Chinese market closes to Brazil until the turn of the year.
The effect has already appeared in August shipments
The freeze is reflected in the numbers. According to Exame, Brazilian shipments in August fell by 88% compared to previous months, and the cumulative volume for 2026 is 6.6% lower than that recorded in 2025.
In the first eight months of the year, Brazil exported 899,200 tons to China, according to Exame. There is divergence between estimates: a compilation by Safras & Mercado cited by the press indicates 1.144 million tons arriving at Chinese ports by August, a number that would already exceed the annual quota.
The final decision is China’s, and it has not yet announced
The key point is not in Montevideo nor in Brasília. The management of the authorized volumes is done entirely by China, and there is no official confirmation that Beijing will allow the transfer of quota from one supplier to another.
“If China decides that this quota is non-transferable, Brazil will not have access to the quota of Uruguay, Argentina, the United States, or New Zealand. It depends on China’s stance. This is the central point; without Chinese approval, the dynamics of Chinese exports will not change,” said Fernando Iglesias, a consultant with Safras & Mercado.
By the time the reports on this case were published, neither the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, nor the country’s customs, nor the embassy had commented on the arrangement.
October is the last window for shipping in 2026
The calendar tightens the deal. Sea freight to China takes between 45 to 60 days, making October the last feasible month for meat to reach within the 2026 quota year.
Iglesias believes that a quick authorization could stimulate the resumption of cattle purchases destined for the Chinese market as early as October. Without a timely decision, the Uruguayan surplus loses practical utility this year.
Abiec Sees Limited Effect in 2026
The association representing exporting slaughterhouses views any initiative that expands Brazilian meat access to the Chinese market positively. However, it notes a calendar caveat.
According to Abiec, “any potential utilization of the Uruguayan quota surplus would have a limited effect in 2026, considering the time needed for negotiation, shipping, and transit of goods to China.” Starting in November, Brazilian slaughterhouses will begin shipping products to fulfill the 2027 quota.
The Greater Gain Would Be in 2027
The Brazilian quota for next year is 1.128 million tons. For Abiec, this is where the measure could weigh in: “For 2027, the measure could represent an important alternative, especially in light of the Brazilian quota of 1.128 million tons and the risk of its depletion in the early months of the year.”
The president of the entity, Roberto Perosa, projects that the 2027 quota could be exhausted between March and April. He also points out uncertainty regarding Chinese demand, as beef stocks in China are high.
Negotiation Started in July and Involved Quota Exchange
The conversation between the two governments did not start in New York. In July 2026, the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture proposed a quota exchange to Uruguay, as revealed by Globo Rural at the time.
Under the original proposal, Brazil would transfer its share of the Mercosur quota for chilled beef to the European Union, at a reduced tariff, and in return would receive the unutilized volume of Uruguay’s Chinese quota.
European Quota is Stalled Due to Sanitary Issues
What makes this exchange possible is a problem on the Brazilian side. The European market is temporarily closed to Brazil due to lack of proof in antimicrobial use control, the medications used in livestock.
In other words, the country would be offering Uruguay access that it cannot currently use, in exchange for space that it urgently needs. However, there is no confirmation that the terms agreed upon on September 21 include this exchange.
Uruguayan Quota Numbers Diverge Between Reports
Globo Rural’s own report presents two figures for Uruguay’s quota in 2026: 324,000 tons in the summary and 331,000 tons in the body of the text.
Surveys regarding the Chinese safeguard published by other outlets indicate 324,000 tons for Uruguay, the same number that appears on the official list alongside the quotas of Brazil and Argentina.
While Beijing Doesn’t Respond, Nothing Changes
Lula’s announcement establishes Uruguay’s agreement, and nothing more. Without China’s approval, Brazil remains subject to a 67% tariff on any volume exceeding its own quota.
The practical definition depends on two timelines: the Chinese response and the October shipping window. If the two do not coincide, the agreement’s impact will be delayed until 2027.
