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With Successive Losses and Strong Dependence on Renegotiated Debts, the Post Office Faces the Risk of Becoming a State-Owned Company Dependent on the National Treasury, Which Could Pressure the Public Budget and Affect Brazilian Fiscal Targets
The Post Office is going through one of the most critical financial periods in its recent history. The state-owned company recorded a loss exceeding R$ 4.4 billion in just the first half of 2025, a result that already surpasses the total deficit of 2024 and evidences the accelerated deterioration of the company’s accounts.
Behind these numbers are years of declining revenue, rising administrative expenses, and an increasing dependence on bank loans, which today sustain the company’s daily operations. The situation places the Post Office at the center of a greater concern: the risk that the state-owned company will require a direct contribution from the National Treasury, which would have an immediate fiscal impact on the government and taxpayers.
Financial Crisis Worsens and Results Go Back to the Red
Since 2022, the Post Office has recorded consecutive and increasing losses, reversing the brief positive cycle observed between 2019 and 2021.
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The balance sheet for the first half of 2025 shows a 13% drop in net revenue compared to the previous year, marking the fourth consecutive year of retraction.
In terms of efficiency, the gross margin plummeted to only 3%, the lowest level since 2017.
In other words, there is practically no more positive operating result after deducting sales costs.
Meanwhile, administrative and labor expenses soared, reaching 54% of total revenue, which increases the financial hole and highlights the low productivity of the state-owned company.
Renegotiated Debts Sustain Operations in the Short Term
Without sufficient cash flow, the Post Office resorted to raising new loans, totaling R$ 1.8 billion in 2025 due by the end of 2026.
These resources, contracted with a still unidentified creditor syndicate, have been crucial for maintaining payments to suppliers and the payroll of employees.
However, the dependence on bank credit exposes the emergency nature of the company’s financial management.
A significant portion of the current cash comes from redeeming investments accumulated between 2020 and 2022, which indicates the depletion of reserves.
Maintaining this trajectory could compromise the solvency of the state-owned company if there is no deep restructuring of costs and revenues.
International Comparison Shows the Fragility of the Brazilian State-Owned Company
When comparing the performance of the Post Office with foreign companies in the sector, such as FedEx, DHL, and USPS, the contrast is evident.
While these companies operate with positive net margins between 2% and 4%, the Post Office exhibits a negative margin exceeding 50% in the first half of 2025.
The Brazilian model, historically protected by a partial monopoly in mail delivery, has failed to keep up with the digital transformation and e-commerce competition, resulting in a continuous loss of market share.
This structural mismatch reinforces the perception that the state-owned company needs a shock of efficiency and modernization, not just new financial resources.
Fiscal Risk and Possible Dependence on the National Treasury
The main point of concern is the potential fiscal impact.
If the Post Office requires approximately R$ 7 billion to cover the deficit by the end of 2026, the state-owned company may be classified as dependent on the National Treasury.
This would mean including all the company’s expenses — around R$ 20 billion annually — in the Union’s budget, directly pressuring the public deficit and fiscal targets.
Sources in the economic area admit the seriousness of the situation, but resist an immediate contribution to avoid increasing the official deficit.
The alternative would be to postpone recognition of dependence until restructuring measures show results, although this represents only a temporary relief.
Need for Efficient Management and Transparency in Accounts
For experts, the challenge is not only financial but structural.
The Post Office needs to reassess its operational model, reduce fixed costs, and improve the transparency of its financial statements.
Recent reports point to inconsistencies, reclassifications of results, and low digitization of financial data, which hinders analysis and decision-making.
Without a solid restructuring plan, the state-owned company will remain dependent on credit and possible public contributions, turning a corporate problem into a macroeconomic risk.
Political pressure to prevent the company’s collapse is expected to grow in the coming months, especially if the results of the second half confirm the negative trend.
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