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Data from Ipardes shows that Curitiba is expected to lose inhabitants by 2050 by about 97 thousand residents while the phenomenon of interiorization makes medium-sized cities in Paraná such as Sarandi, Toledo, and Fazenda Rio Grande surpass the mark of 200 thousand people in the next 25 years
Curitiba is shrinking. According to projections from Ipardes, the capital of Paraná is expected to lose inhabitants by 2050 by about 97 thousand residents, settling at around 1.8 million while the interior of the state experiences an opposite phenomenon. Medium-sized cities in Paraná such as Sarandi, Araucária, Fazenda Rio Grande, and Toledo are growing rapidly and are expected to surpass the mark of 200 thousand inhabitants in the next 25 years, changing the demographic balance of the entire state.
The process has a name in urban geography: interiorization. Young people of working age are leaving both very small towns and the capital to settle in medium-sized centers that already offer good hospitals, colleges, jobs, and something that Curitiba has less and less: available land and affordable housing, according to Tribuna. The result is that Paraná, which currently has eight cities with more than 200 thousand inhabitants, is expected to expand this group by at least four new municipalities by 2050, three of them belonging to metropolitan regions.
Why Curitiba will lose 97 thousand residents according to Ipardes
The data from Ipardes indicates that Curitiba is not collapsing, but it is failing to grow at the pace of previous decades.
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The capital is expected to lose inhabitants by 2050 because the migratory flow that fueled its growth has changed direction, and people who previously moved to the metropolis now find in medium-sized cities in Paraná what they are looking for without having to face the cost of living and the verticalization of the capital.
Leonildo Souza, head of the Department of Population and Social Studies at Ipardes, explains that the engine of growth for interior cities is short-distance migrations.
People are leaving very small municipalities for medium-sized centers in the same region, where there is already established infrastructure.
While Curitiba bets on verticalization to make use of the little remaining space, the interior cities can still grow outward, with more available land and significantly lower housing prices.
Interiorization and medium-sized cities in Paraná on the rise
The phenomenon of interiorization is not exclusive to Paraná, but it gains relevant proportions in the state because medium-sized cities in Paraná already have sufficient structure to absorb new residents.
Sarandi, neighboring Maringá, is one of the most expressive examples: the city is expected to jump from 130 thousand to over 200 thousand residents in the next 25 years, consolidating the Maringá region as one of the most dynamic growth poles in the state.
Researcher Jaqueline Telma Vercezi from the Department of Geography at the State University of Londrina explains that the growth of these cities is associated with factors such as quality of life and local public policies.
Interiorization does not mean that Curitiba is ceasing to exist as an economic hub: it means that public policies are being promoted in smaller and medium-sized municipalities and, consequently, attracting populations that previously saw no alternative outside the capital.
Who is leaving Curitiba and why chooses the interior
Designer Jéssica Ribeiro, 34, is part of this statistic. Born in Curitiba, she swapped the capital for the interior and now lives in Maringá.
For her, the change was a matter of scale: in the capital, she was just another person within a huge structure; in the interior, she feels she has space to perceive the impact of what she does on the community.
Jéssica left Curitiba to study Medicine in Corumbá, in Mato Grosso do Sul, and then transferred her enrollment to Maringá, choosing to stay outside the capital.
The only things she misses are family and the variety of cultural options that Curitiba offers, but she believes that the peace and proximity to nature make up for it.
For the future, she thinks about places like the coast of Paraná or Santa Catarina, but has no plans to return to the capital, a profile that exemplifies the ongoing interiorization.
Growing too fast also brings risks for medium-sized cities in Paraná
Researcher Jaqueline Vercezi warns that the accelerated expansion of medium-sized cities in Paraná can create problems if not well planned.
The biggest risk is “urban voids”: when new condominiums are built too far from the center, the city hall is forced to bring asphalt, electricity, and sewage to isolated areas, increasing the cost of managing the entire city.
Another point that Ipardes highlights is the aging population. Projections indicate that municipalities will become increasingly urbanized and older, with fewer children.
This signals less pressure on education in terms of quantity, but greater demand for health and infrastructure for the elderly.
For the medium-sized cities in Paraná that are absorbing the population that Curitiba is no longer attracting, planning this growth 25 years in advance is the difference between becoming a functional city and becoming a city with the same problems that make people leave the capital.
Would you stay in Curitiba or go to the interior?
Curitiba is expected to lose inhabitants by 2050 by about 97 thousand residents according to Ipardes, while interiorization transforms medium-sized cities in Paraná such as Sarandi, Toledo, and Araucária into the new growth poles of the state.
The demographic map of Paraná is changing, and in the next 25 years the interior will concentrate an increasingly larger share of the population that previously sought the capital.
Do you live in Curitiba and are thinking of leaving? Or have you already swapped the capital for the interior? Share in the comments what influenced your decision and whether you think the medium-sized cities in Paraná are really ready for this growth.
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