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Cold Front Should Advance Through the South and Southeast in the Coming Days, with Risk of Severe Weather, Gusty Winds, Heavy Rain, and Temperature Drops in Several Regions of the Country.
The arrival of two cold fronts to Brazil in the coming days is expected to cause significant weather changes, with forecasts of severe weather, high rainfall volumes, and temperature drops in different regions. The projection indicates that the first system will be active this weekend, while a second may form between March 14 and 15.
According to the meteorological analyses cited in the database, the first cold front begins to influence the weather starting this Friday, with isolated thunderstorms between Argentina, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul. There is a risk of heavy rain, gusty winds, and the possibility of hail, a scenario that may intensify as the system progresses through Brazilian territory.
First Cold Front Advances with Severe Weather in the South
The approach of the first cold front is likely to cause instability early in the period, especially in the southernmost part of the country. The database indicates isolated thunderstorms in the area between Argentina, Uruguay, and Rio Grande do Sul, with chances of heavy precipitation and intense winds.
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On Saturday, the frontal system associated with a low-pressure area is expected to advance over the southern region, increasing the risk of severe weather in the three states. The highest potential for heavy rain is expected in Rio Grande do Sul, where the combination of humidity and atmospheric dynamics favors the formation of storm cores.
When the cold front meets warm, moist air, the chances of heavy rain, gusty winds, and hail in localized areas increase.
Cold Front Moves to the Southeast and Reaches the Midwest
Between Sunday and Monday, the cold front is expected to move quickly toward the Southeast. With this advance, the most significant rainfall volumes should reach areas of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro.
The database also points out that part of the Midwest may be impacted by the instability, with a risk of rain in Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, and Mato Grosso. In this scenario, the cold front affects not just one region but reorganizes the distribution of rainfall across several states simultaneously.
The rapid movement of the cold front may cause heavy rain in short intervals, increasing the risk of urban disruptions.
Risk of High Accumulations and Areas with Up to 300 mm
The possibility of heavy rain is one of the main alerts mentioned. The database highlights the risk of significant accumulations in the Center and South of Minas Gerais, in eastern São Paulo, and in the interior of Rio de Janeiro.
In these areas, the volumes may range from 100 to 200 millimeters, with isolated points potentially reaching up to 300 millimeters. The influence of the cold front combined with favorable moisture conditions may prolong the rain and increase accumulations.
This raises the risks of flooding, falling trees, traffic disruptions, and, in regions with rugged terrain, the possibility of landslides.
Intense sequential rainfall, even if not very prolonged, can cause impacts when it occurs over already saturated areas or with limited drainage.
Moisture Corridor May Strengthen Instability
The database informs that, in the Center and North of the country, accumulations may be enhanced by a moisture corridor coming from the Amazon. This type of pattern tends to intensify instability and favor more persistent rains.
When this moisture corridor acts simultaneously with a cold front moving through the country, the atmosphere can become even more conducive to severe weather and high rainfall volumes in some sectors.
The combination of a cold front and intense humidity may increase the frequency of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Temperature Drop Expected After the System Passes
In addition to the rain, the passage of the cold front is also expected to cause temperature drops, primarily in the southern region. The database indicates that a high-pressure system in the South Atlantic could lead to maximum temperatures dropping by more than 10 degrees between Saturday and Monday.
Another high-pressure center may reach the region around March 15. If this nucleus moves through the interior of the continent, especially close to Rio Grande do Sul, the temperature drop may be even more significant, reinforcing the feeling of cold after the instability.
After the rain, the advance of colder air typically reduces maximum temperatures and rapidly changes the thermal sensation.
Meteorological Models Diverge on the Second Cold Front
Despite the trend of instability, the database highlights that the meteorological models still show differences in projections. One of the scenarios indicates the occurrence of two cold fronts during the period.
Other models point to the possibility of a low-pressure area forming at sea between Santa Catarina and Paraná between March 13 and 15. In this case, heavy rain would continue to be concentrated in the Center and North of the country but linked to a different weather system.
Even with divergences, the general trend presented is for days with unstable weather and a risk of significant rain in several regions.
And in your region, when a cold front arrives, what typically happens first: strong winds, heavy rain, or a temperature drop?
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