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The Survey Conducted by ANP Indicates That Cbios Hit a Price Record in the Last Days of June Compared to the End of May. It Is Estimated That the Increase Was About 70% of the Final Value in the Last Month Due to Some Factors.
The National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) disclosed, this Tuesday (07/12), the data on the quoted values for Cbios in recent months. The survey was based on a comparison of prices from the month of May to the end of June and shows that the value reached a record of about R$ 202.
Understand What Factors Cause Cbios Prices to Hit Record Highs
In this sense, according to the project manager of Pecege, Haroldo Torres, Cbios prices have been increasing due to two main factors. The first is the volume of Cbios obtained by distributors — the mandatory purchase portion — and the second is the significant increase in purchases of the credits by other market agents — that is, the non-mandatory portion.
“Everything indicates that distributors will meet the target. This shows that they are bringing forward Cbios purchases, meaning this is a factor that explains this price behavior and reflects a change in the purchasing behavior of distributors. The total volume of Cbios offered in 2022 was nearly 14 million Cbios, a volume lower than the same period last year, which was 14.9 million. In 2021, the distributors’ target was also significantly lower, with a difference of more than 11 million Cbios. In other words, they anticipated purchases at a time when I have a more restricted offer, compared to 2021, and with a higher target,” says Torres.
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It is important to highlight that in the past two years, distributors had been concentrating their purchases more towards the end of the year, close to the deadline for the target, which is why the increase in Cbios values drew so much attention. In May, the traded volume of Cbios was 7.5 million, an increase of about 54% compared to April. Also, in May, the values started to strengthen even more, reaching the record of R$ 119 and since then it hasn’t stopped rising rapidly, surpassing R$ 200.
Significant Increase in Purchases of Credits by Other Market Agents
The growing increase in purchases of credits by other market agents is the second reason for the significant rise in Cbios values, as these agents are not the mandatory portion. The increase in purchases is due to the lack of a forecast for a surplus outcome in the market for 2023, causing a collapse of Cbios and an increase in demand from the agents.
“So far they had a negligible share. However, from May to June, the volume purchased by the non-mandatory portion rose by 179%. It is a low volume compared to the mandatory portion, but this movement may have also pushed the average prices up,” Torres emphasizes.
Thus, the volume of Cbios displayed by the second half of June is 42% of the annual target, which is about 36.75 million credits, while the number of Cbios available at the end of June is 21.7 million credits. In addition, the volume of non-mandatory credits combined with what is in the mandatory portion totals 63% of the target. The volume of traded Cbios in the second half of June was 8.13 million credits.
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