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Measures May Directly Affect Investments, Legal Security, and Jobs in the Energy Sector, According to Representative Entities
The federal government presented in June 2025 a set of measures aimed at the oil and gas sector.
The objective is to reinforce budgetary balance.
The proposals may yield approximately R$35 billion in revenue by 2026.
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The rise in oil prices could ensure an extra revenue of R$ 100 billion for the Federal Government, indicates a recent economic study.
Only in 2025, it is expected to raise around R$ 15 billion from the early sale of oil belonging to the Union in the Atapu, Mero, and Tupi fields.
Additionally, the revision of the Special Participation model, changes in the revenue collection from the Jubarte field, and adjustments in the reference price are also on the radar.
For the following year, the plan includes new auctions by the National Petroleum Agency (ANP).
There will also be a second revision of the reference price for oil and changes to the decree regulating the Special Participation in the Tupi field.
In light of this scenario, the government’s strategy seeks to enable new sources of revenue. This occurs especially in the context of a R$30 billion budget cut and uncertainties regarding the increase of the IOF.
Entities See Legal Risks and Contraction in the Sector
Despite the revenue collection target, the main industry entities expressed strong concern about the impact of the measures.
The Brazilian Institute of Oil and Gas (IBP), chaired by Roberto Ardenghy, stated in an official note that it is closely monitoring the progress of the discussions.
According to the entity, the sector already contributes significantly.
Two out of every three barrels produced in Brazil are allocated to the payment of taxes and specific charges.
While acknowledging the need for fiscal reinforcement, the IBP emphasizes that any proposal must observe legal and predictable criteria.
The entity suggested, for example, the early sale of uncontracted pre-salt oil as a potentially positive action, provided it respects existing contracts.
On the other hand, unilateral changes to the rates of Special Participation or in the calculation of the reference price, without proper legal backing, are considered threats to contractual security and the regulatory environment.
ABPIP Warns of Economic and Social Effects
The Brazilian Association of Independent Oil and Gas Producers (ABPIP), led by Marcio Felix, expressed deep concern about the new package. The entity recognizes the importance of fiscal balance but emphasizes that it cannot be achieved by undermining mature and smaller-scale assets.
These assets play a fundamental role in generating local jobs and ensuring energy security in the North and Northeast regions. Furthermore, ABPIP warned that implementing changes without impact studies, public consultations, or transition rules could violate the principle of legitimate reliance.
As a result, there may be premature abandonment of fields, reduced investments, and loss of future revenue. For the association, the effects could be the opposite of what the government desires, causing a dismantling of the sector’s productive base.
Sector Criticizes Selective Increase in Tax Burden
The criticisms from the entities also focus on recent measures proposed by the ANP. These changes directly affect oil pricing.
The ABPIP indicated that the agency’s studies on the methodology for calculating reference prices already exert strong pressure on the margins of smaller companies. Thus, any new charge applied selectively jeopardizes the diversity of the sector.
Moreover, it undermines the incentive logic that has supported energy policy since the market opening. According to the entity, independent companies face a combination of challenges that could render their operations unviable.
This is because, in addition to high operational costs, there is legal insecurity and frequent changes in the rules. As a consequence, there may be a contraction in private investments and, in the long term, weakening of structural revenue.
Government Seeks to Expand Revenue but Faces Resistance
Although the federal government defends the legality and technical feasibility of the fiscal package, specialists and representatives from the sector argue that the moment requires caution.
In seeking to reinforce public finances, the risk is to undermine the very source of revenue by discouraging new investments. Thus, both the IBP and ABPIP request that any advancement occurs within legal frameworks and with transparent dialogue.
The recent experience of the government attempting to impose a tax on oil exports, which was subsequently overturned in court due to lack of legal basis, is frequently cited as an example of regulatory instability.
Therefore, to preserve the predictability of the business environment, it is essential that initiatives are analyzed responsibly. It is necessary to ensure a balance between revenue and sustainable development of the energy sector.
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