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With This Reduction in the Price of Gasoline, the Financial Market Lowered Inflation Expectations for Fuel Prices for This Year of 2022
The president of Sindicombustíveis-DF (Union of Retail Trade of Fuels and Lubricants of the Federal District), Paulo Tavares, stated that gas stations should pass on to customers the new reduction in the price of gasoline that was announced on Monday, the 15th, by Petrobras. Yesterday, for example, in the Federal District, the price of a liter of gasoline was around R$ 5.20, while at Posto Petrolino, in Taguatinga, the fuel was sold for R$ 4.99 per liter.
Petrobras has reduced the price of a liter of gasoline for sales to distributors in the Federal District by 4.8%, meaning a cut from R$ 3.71 to R$ 3.53. According to the company, the decrease in the price of fuel could mean an average reduction of R$ 0.13 in prices at gas stations, considering the composition of the product sold, 73% gasoline and 27% ethanol.
“There is nothing in the law that obliges gas stations to lower their prices immediately, to transfer the reductions from refineries to the final price sold at gas stations. However, in practice, it always goes to the final consumer; they are always benefited”, Tavares said.
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Decrease in Fuel Prices in the Federal District Led Financial Market to Lower Inflation Expectations for 2022
The reduction in the price of fuel in the Federal District is leading the financial market to revise inflation expectations for 2022 downwards. According to XP Investimentos, the projection for the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for 2022 has decreased from 7% to 6.8%.
For example, Victor Miguel, a 20-year-old resident of Águas Claras, who began driving during the pandemic, stated that he was eagerly waiting for lower gasoline prices. “It had been a long time since I felt an improvement; the price was very high. Now it’s still high, but it’s plausible”, he said.
Why Are Fuel Prices Falling?
While the increase in the price of gasoline, diesel, and other fuels was driven by the recovery of the global economy after the downturn caused by the Covid pandemic, along with the strong rise of the dollar against the real and the effects of the war in Ukraine, the recent decrease in fuel prices (gasoline) mainly came in the wake of the tax cuts on the product, especially in the Federal District.
In the middle of June, legislation came into effect that imposes a limit on the rates of the Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) that apply to items considered essential, such as fuels, natural gas, electricity, communications, and collective transportation in all states of Brazil and the Federal District.
The ICMS is a state tax and makes up the price of most products sold in Brazil; it accounts for the majority of tax revenue collected by states and the Federal District. The same law also eliminated federal taxes applied to gasoline, which, in June, represented about 10% of the price of fuel sold to consumers, according to data from Petrobras.
Current Gasoline Prices in the States and the Federal District
The start of the new law regarding taxes on fuel prices had a rapid effect; in the same month, the price of gasoline passed on to consumers fell by 0.72%. In July, the reduction was 15.48%, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
In the accumulated 12 months, after 16 consecutive months of double-digit increases, gasoline finally saw a slight increase last month of 5.64%.
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