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Ibre-FGV Study Indicates That the Increase in Bolsa Família’s Value Impacted the Supply of Less Qualified Workers. Entrepreneurs Report Difficulty Filling Vacancies and Advocate Adjustments to the Program to Encourage Formalization.
The combination of low unemployment rate, recent expansion of Bolsa Família, and changing profile of the workforce has reignited the debate on the lack of labor in commerce and services.
According to a report published by the newspaper Diário do Comércio, signed by journalist Karina Lignelli, a survey by Ibre-FGV indicates that the benefit, now with an average value of R$ 671.54, has reduced the supply of less qualified workers and encouraged continued informality, especially among young people.
For entrepreneurs and economists interviewed by the publication, the tight market scenario would be conducive to adjustments in the design of welfare programs.
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Full Employment Pressures Hiring
With the unemployment rate at 5.6% in August, the market operates close to what economists call full employment.
In this context, companies report increasing difficulty filling operational positions in supermarkets, bakeries, agriculture, and other labor-intensive activities.
According to findings from the Diário do Comércio, some candidates refuse formal ties in order not to lose the aid.
In regions with a high concentration of beneficiaries, there are reports of situations where “there are more people receiving Bolsa Família than there are employees with formal contracts,” according to the chief economist of the São Paulo Commercial Association (ACSP), Marcel Solimeo.
What Does the Ibre-FGV Study Say
The research conducted by Daniel Duque, from Ibre-FGV, relates the expansion of the benefit to changes in participation in the labor market.
The program’s value, which was R$ 190 in 2019, rose to approximately R$ 400 after the pandemic, reached R$ 600 in 2022, and came to represent 35% of median labor income, up from 15% previously.
The number of families covered is said to have jumped from 14 million to 21 million, while the annual budget approached R$ 170 billion.
According to the newspaper, the participation rate has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, and the expansion of the benefit helped to explain the mismatch.
Among men aged 17 to 30, the supply of work is said to have decreased more significantly, as well as the search for formal positions.
Duque summarizes the dynamics by stating that “those who react most to the increase in Bolsa Família income are men, who are more likely to be in formal occupations and face fewer time restrictions imposed by family.”
He also observes a threshold effect: newly eligible groups have reduced labor participation by 11% compared to very similar families that missed out due to minor income differences — which translates, in the researcher’s calculation, to the idea that “for every two families that receive Bolsa Família, one leaves the workforce.”
Incentives and the “Protection Rule”
Starting in June, the protection rule came into effect: families exceeding a per capita income of R$ 218 may remain in the program for up to 12 months, receiving 50% of the amount.
The government’s intention was to ease the transition to formal employment and reduce the fear of losing the benefit abruptly.
In practice, however, entrepreneurs report that the incentive is still insufficient to retain candidates, especially in positions with low wages and long hours.
For Solimeo, the ideal is to maintain an effective “exit door,” with periodic evaluations, training, and employment assistance: “the citizen should advance in their professional life,” he stated to the Diário do Comércio.
Lack of Labor in Commerce and Services
In commerce and services, the complaint is recurring. There is difficulty filling basic positions, high turnover, and greater competition with self-employment.
Part of the business assessment, reported by the article, is that the cost of formal employment — driven by CLT burdens — makes hiring less attractive, while the guaranteed income from the program, combined with side jobs and apps, supports more flexible choices.
The newspaper also noted concerns about the fiscal situation: high spending could push interest rates up and make credit more expensive, affecting investment and productivity.
Voices from Academia and the Business Sector
For Antonio Lanzana, economist and professor at FEA-USP, small businesses are the most affected, as they rely on low-skilled workers.
He acknowledges that many potential employees avoid formal ties to not lose the benefit or prefer informal activities, creating misalignment in the formal market. Still, he argues that transfers do not explain everything.
There are unfavorable demographics, with a loss of the young workforce; growth above potential in part of the post-pandemic period, exhausting idle resources; and attraction to apps and flexible work, which compete with traditional employment.
“I do not see movements in the business sector for a review of this type of benefit, but there are criticisms in the sense that there is an excess of public spending — which forces the Central Bank to maintain high-interest rates that harm business management,” Lanzana said in an interview with the Diário do Comércio.
Productivity, Qualification, and Income
Another recurring point in the debate is low productivity. Entrepreneurs and economists argue that sustainable gains would come from investments in education and health, as well as professional qualification.
There has been a real increase in average remuneration in recent quarters and an expansion of total earnings, driven by both work and transfers.
The collateral effect would be the greater difficulty for companies to recruit, especially for entry-level positions, pressured by non-competitive wages compared to the family income package.
The Role of Freezing and Political Risk
Duque emphasizes that, after strong expansion until 2023, the program did not advance between 2024 and 2025, which relativizes its explanation for the more recent labor shortage.
He notes that the government avoided adjusting the benefit amount for inflation to contain distortions, a decision that, over time, reduces the purchasing power of aid and may make formal employment more attractive.
The researcher also points out the political cost of reforms: the fixed and standardized benefit amount gained popularity and became sensitive to changes, unlike the old per capita model, which varied according to family composition and had better results in fighting poverty, but was difficult to communicate, as highlighted by the Diário do Comércio.
Proposals on the Table: Redesign and Conditionalities
Among suggestions floated in the business community are adjustments to the reference value and strengthening of conditionalities related to education and productivity.
Some advocate for targeted transfers to mothers with small children and to young people who have dropped out of school to complement income, as a way to mitigate negative effects on the labor market without weakening social protection.
Another recurring proposal is to expand training and labor intermediation, with measurable goals, to ensure that the “exit door” is concrete and not just rhetorical.
Structural Factors Continue to Weigh
Even critics of the current design acknowledge that Bolsa Família is just one piece of the puzzle. The drop in birth rates and the aging population compress the young base, essential for labor-intensive sectors.
The preference for flexible occupations has grown, and the cost of formal employment remains high.
Without advances in basic education, technical training, and business environment, experts believe that companies will continue to compete for a limited pool of workers, with or without aid.
In your view, what should weigh more in the short term: adjustments to the benefit to calibrate incentives or measures to reduce the cost of formal employment and accelerate qualification, without losing sight of protecting the most vulnerable?
É verdade, as pessoas não querem mais a humilhação dessas vagas de salários baixos e jornadas extensas e extenuantes… ofereçam mais que a mão de obra aparece.
Você trabalharia, pesadamente, 8h a 12h, sem benefícios relevantes, por R$ 2.500,00 ****?
Não é so isso, as empresas estão exigindo de forma velada, vacina contra covid, mesmo algumas ja terem parado de fabrica por efeitos colaterais
Quem gasta mais do que arrecada, terá que oferecer títulos públicos, com taxas de retorno atrativas. Para o empresariado, juros altos, torna o dinheiro mais caro. Crédito mais caro e carga tributária absurda, afugenta investidores que acabam levando seu patrimônio para outras paragens. O maior problema está no desgoverdo, desse atual governo, que têm um ministro da economia, que nem economista é. Está pronta a receita do fracasso.