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Petrobras Sees Growing Financial Pressure As Change In Royalty Calculation Threatens Strategic Projects And Delays Relevant Investments
The debate over the Reference Price of Oil, approved by Congress, intensifies tensions in the sector, as, according to President Magda Chambriard, the measure directly compromises the sustainability of essential Petrobras projects. Furthermore, she emphasized that the decision could profoundly affect the future of the Campos Basin, considered strategic for Northern Fluminense.
Regulatory Context Altering The Sector’s Calculation Base
The change in the Reference Price was included in Provisional Measure 1.304, and, according to the approved text, it adjusts the base for the calculation of royalties and Special Participation paid to the Union. However, Magda stated that, if there is no presidential veto, there will be aimmediate increase in the amount transferred, which pressures the state company’s cash flow. She explained that the scenario is even more delicate because the sector faces high costs and international prices at a reduced level.
Financial And Operational Impacts On Strategic Projects
The president explained that the increase in the Reference Price directly impacts Petrobras’ budget, as it raises costs and reduces profit margins. Moreover, she highlighted that the measure particularly harms low-return initiatives, such as mature fields and onshore operations. As she explained, the Business Plan 2026–2030 is expected to postpone the revitalization of the Campos Basin and Sergipe Deep Waters, possibly until after 2030, which jeopardizes the continuity of investments deemed essential.
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Economic Risks For Northern Fluminense
Magda compared the situation to the crisis that hit Detroit, emphasizing that, without regulatory comprehension, the Northern Fluminense may face a severe downturn. She stated that Petrobras has been making great efforts to recover the Campos Basin, but warned that disconnected decisions from the real scenario could provoke lasting socio-economic losses. She also pointed out that the current price of oil is about US$ 20 below what was planned in the previous cycle.
Legal Instability And Domino Effect In The Sector
The executive emphasized that the change creates legal instability, as the Reference Price had been updated by the ANP less than six months prior, after a long technical process. Additionally, she mentioned that market fluctuations could exacerbate uncertainties: if oil reaches US$ 50, projects could be canceled; if it rises to US$ 70, initiatives might resume. According to her, Brent was close to US$ 62, demonstrating sensitivity of planning to international variations.
Social Effects And Impact On Suppliers And Jobs
She highlighted that each delayed project causes demand loss for suppliers, which implies a reduction in activities and job opportunities. Furthermore, Magda stated that Petrobras has sought to protect the population by adjusting prices to the national market, which has reduced the price of diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene since December 2022. For her, these actions demonstrate that the company balances financial return and social well-being.
Contrast Between Public And Privatized Refineries
Magda pointed out that privatized refineries in Bahia and Amazonas have been charging higher prices than Petrobras units. Additionally, she stated that de-verticalization has reduced synergies and increased costs, contrary to previous expectations of price reductions. According to her, the state-owned company maintains lower prices without compromising its financial health.
What Does The Future Hold For Petrobras And Northern Fluminense?
The situation demands regulatory balance to ensure that strategic projects come to fruition, as each delay causes significant economic and social impacts. However, the final decision will depend on regulatory and market factors and the maturity of each initiative.
Will the sector be able to reconcile regulatory stability, economic sustainability, and job preservation in the region, ensuring lasting advancements?
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