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Heavy Rains, Advancing Cold Front, and Formation of a New Extratropical Cyclone Are Expected to Change the Weather in All Regions of Brazil in the Coming Days, with Risk of Hail, Strong Winds, and High Precipitation Volumes.
The first week of December is expected to be marked by intense rain, storms, and a temperature drop across much of the country, with the formation of a new extratropical cyclone off the Brazilian coast.
According to Inmet (National Institute of Meteorology), storm alerts are in effect for 20 states and the Federal District, with risks of hail, wind gusts, and rainfall totals that could exceed 150 millimeters in some locations.
Meteorologists point out that the combination of the advancing cold front and the interaction of this extratropical cyclone reorganizes moisture across all five regions of Brazil.
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The scenario is expected to favor episodes of severe weather, particularly in the Central-South region, over several consecutive days.
According to meteorologist Tiago Robles from Meteored, the cold front associated with the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and a temperature drop mainly to the South, Southeast, and Central-West regions, but it also influences areas in the North and Northeast.
Meanwhile, high temperatures remain prevalent in parts of the country before the arrival of stronger instabilities.
Cyclone and Cold Front Restructure the Weather in the Country
The new extratropical cyclone is expected to form from a low-pressure area between the South and Southeast regions.
The expectation is that this cyclogenesis process will occur on Tuesday, intensifying the storms that have been starting to be felt since the beginning of the week.
This low pressure, as it moves toward the ocean and deepens, gives rise to the cyclone and strengthens the cold front.
As a result, the contrast between warm and cold air masses intensifies, increasing instability and the potential for strong rain showers, accompanied by wind gusts and hail in different states.
In addition to the heavy rainfall, forecasts indicate a drop in temperatures across much of the Central-South region as the cold air advances.
The change is expected to be felt more strongly after the cyclone consolidates, while the extreme North and areas of the Northeast interior remain warmer, still under the influence of hot and humid air.
Monday (1): Storms and Intense Heat
On the eve of the cyclone’s formation, the low-pressure area is already affecting the South Region and neighboring countries, intensifying instabilities since the early hours of the day.
This pattern favors the occurrence of storms in parts of the South and North, while maintaining extremely high heat in parts of the Central-South region.
During the morning, forecasts indicate heavy rain in the north and central-east of Rio Grande do Sul, in the south and mid-west of Santa Catarina, in the southwest of Paraná, and in areas of the North Region.
The showers may be accompanied by lightning and wind gusts.
Throughout the afternoon, areas of instability advance and spread into the north of Rio Grande do Sul, the south and west of Santa Catarina, and a large part of Paraná.
In the Central-West, rains intensify in the center-south and northeast of Mato Grosso, as well as in areas of the North, northern Mato Grosso, central-northern Goiás, the Northeast interior, and northern Minas Gerais.
Despite the rains, extreme heat still concentrates in northern Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, southern Goiás, São Paulo, and Minas Gerais.
Tuesday (2): Cyclone Formation and Hail Risk
On Tuesday, the low pressure shifts toward the coasts of the South and Southeast regions and begins to evolve into an extratropical cyclone, reorganizing rain areas and increasing the risk of severe weather.
The presence of the cyclone enhances conditions for storms with hail in various states.
In the morning, rain showers are expected in the south and west of Santa Catarina, in the southwest and west of Paraná, in Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, and in specific areas of the North and Northeast regions.
In some of these locations, the rain may already arrive in the form of storms.
During the afternoon, storms become more frequent and widespread in northern Santa Catarina and Paraná, throughout the state of São Paulo, and in Rio de Janeiro.
In Minas Gerais, instability increases in the center-south, in the Triângulo Mineiro, and in the Zona da Mata.
Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, northern Goiás, the North Region, and the interior of the Northeast also experience heavy showers.
The combination of heat, high humidity, and direct influence from the cyclone creates a favorable environment for hail, intense wind gusts, and significant rainfall in a short period.
Wednesday (3): Persistent Rain in the Southeast and Central-West
With the extratropical cyclone already more organized and the associated cold front advancing, Wednesday is likely to mark a period of more persistent rains and lower temperatures in the Southeast and Central-West regions.
The South Region begins to experience a more stable weather pattern.
Early in the day, light to moderate rain is predicted in northern São Paulo, in Rio de Janeiro, in the southern half of Minas Gerais, as well as in Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, the North Region, and in the south of Maranhão and Piauí.
From afternoon to evening, the risk of heavy rain spreads across practically all of the Southeast and Central-West, a large part of the North Region, and also through southern Maranhão, Piauí, and western Bahia.
The highest volumes are projected for northern Rio de Janeiro, western Minas Gerais, and Espírito Santo.
Thursday (4): Advancement of the Cold Front and Partial Stabilization
On Thursday, the cold front advances to the north of Espírito Santo and the south of Bahia. A cold air mass begins to stabilize the weather in parts of the Central-South region.
Fair weather predominates across much of the South Region, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro.
Light drizzle persists in the east of Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro.
Intense rains are concentrated in northern São Paulo, in the center-west and north of Minas Gerais, in Espírito Santo, in the south and west of Bahia, in the south of Maranhão and Piauí, in addition to Goiás, Mato Grosso, and a large part of the North Region.
At night, the risk of high accumulations increases in Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, and southern Bahia.
Friday (5): Instabilities Migrate to the North and Northeast
At the end of the week, the cold front continues advancing toward the Northeast and reduces instabilities in the Central-South region.
The forecast indicates fair weather in most of the South Region, in Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, southern Espírito Santo, central-south Minas Gerais, and Triângulo Mineiro.
There is a chance of light rain in eastern São Paulo, in the coastal region of Rio de Janeiro, and in southern Espírito Santo.
The heaviest rains are expected to concentrate in northern Espírito Santo, southern, central, and western Bahia, in the south of Maranhão and Piauí, as well as in Goiás, Mato Grosso, and a large part of the North Region.
In a period with cyclone formation, advancing cold front, and general alerts for storms, how do you plan to organize yourself to deal with the expected instability over the next few days?
Vitória Es 20:15 céu desabando em água!!!
Você lê lê e lê. Mas não tem dia marcado nenhum. É um Chute, acertar acertou, errou, errou. Besteira do KCT.
Me deixou assustado:(