Selic at 15% Stifles Brazilian Industry and CNI Demands Urgent Rate Cut

Written by Caio Aviz

Published on 17/09/2025 at 23:29

Fábricas brasileiras diante da Selic em 15%, com gráfico em queda e bandeira nacional representando os efeitos dos juros altos sobre a economia

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Maintenance of the Selic at Record Levels

In September 2025, the Central Bank decided to keep the Selic at 15% per year. This measure was deemed unjustified by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI).

The entity assesses that this decision takes an excessively conservative stance, even in light of the decline in inflation and the slowdown of the economy.

The president of CNI, Ricardo Alban, emphasizes that there is no sustainable growth with such high interest rates.

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The direct consequence is the halt of productive investments and the contraction of credit.

According to him, the Copom should begin the cycle of cuts as early as November 2025, during the penultimate meeting of the year.

Moreover, CNI argues that this change is essential to restore momentum to the industrial sector.

Impacts of Expensive Credit on the Economy

Since September 2024, when the cycle of increases began, the effects of the Selic have become more evident.

In July 2025, the average interest rate on credit to companies jumped from 20.58% to 25.02% per year.

For households, the cost rose from 52.26% to 57.65% per year.

This increase affected the Gross Fixed Capital Formation, which dropped by 2.2% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first.

Additionally, the consumption of industrial goods decreased by 0.4% in the same period.

The GDP also lost momentum, growing only 0.4% in the second quarter, after advancing 1.3% in the first.

To top it off, in July 2025, the IBC-Br dropped by 0.5%, with contractions in agriculture, industry, and services, according to the Central Bank itself.

Inflation Shows Signs of Slowing Down

Meanwhile, price indicators show a favorable trajectory.

In 2025, the IPCA fell from 1.31% in February to -0.11% in August, recording five consecutive months of decline.

The main factors were the appreciation of the real, which reduced pressure on food prices, and the record harvest, which lowered the costs of industrial goods.

The Focus Report, published weekly by the Central Bank, indicates successive revisions in inflation expectations.

In May 2025, the year-end forecast was 5.50%.

In September, the estimate fell to 4.83%.

This scenario, according to CNI, reinforces the need for a less restrictive monetary policy.

Loss of Confidence and Additional Costs

Another critical point, therefore, is the confidence of the industrial sector.
Additionally, the Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) shows nine consecutive months of pessimism until September 2025.

At the same time, entrepreneurs face an increase in the IOF on credit and currency operations. In this sense, the extra burden complicates financial planning and pressures costs.

Moreover, they also encounter the increase in tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian exports. Thus, the international scenario becomes hostile and raises barriers to competitiveness.

Consequently, this combination pressures competitiveness.
Therefore, it expands the difficulties of maintaining investments and, at the same time, jeopardizes job creation.

For CNI, prolonging interest rates at 15% only worsens this situation.
Thus, instability persists and, therefore, undermines business confidence in the near future.

CNI Proposals to Balance the Economy

Given this scenario, CNI advocates two central measures to ensure a path to growth.

Firstly, the entity proposes an immediate cut in the Selic, still in the November Copom meeting, since high-interest rates hinder economic activity.

Additionally, secondly, the confederation advocates a fiscal consolidation pact, which prioritizes cuts in public spending and greater alignment between fiscal and monetary policy.

Thus, CNI believes that this agenda will reduce credit costs, recover entrepreneurs’ confidence, and consequently resume sustainable growth.

Finally, the message is clear: lower interest rates are essential for the industry to invest again, strengthen its competitiveness, and generate thousands of jobs still in 2025.

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Airton

#176049

19/09/2025 15:39

Tem que reduzir o salário dos políticos **** e prender os traidores da Pátria.

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Selic at 15% Stifles Brazilian Industry and CNI Demands Urgent Rate Cut

Maintenance of the Selic at Record Levels

Major Oil, Gas, and Energy Event Will Take Place in Brazil: Macaé Energy Will Gather Petrobras, Equinor, Prio, Among Other Suppliers and Energy Executives for Business, Networking, and Employment Opportunities

Impacts of Expensive Credit on the Economy

Inflation Shows Signs of Slowing Down

Loss of Confidence and Additional Costs

CNI Proposals to Balance the Economy

Finally, the message is clear: lower interest rates are essential for the industry to invest again, strengthen its competitiveness, and generate thousands of jobs still in 2025.

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Selic at 15% Stifles Brazilian Industry and CNI Demands Urgent Rate Cut

Maintenance of the Selic at Record Levels

Major Oil, Gas, and Energy Event Will Take Place in Brazil: Macaé Energy Will Gather Petrobras, Equinor, Prio, Among Other Suppliers and Energy Executives for Business, Networking, and Employment Opportunities

Impacts of Expensive Credit on the Economy

Inflation Shows Signs of Slowing Down

Loss of Confidence and Additional Costs

CNI Proposals to Balance the Economy

Finally, the message is clear: lower interest rates are essential for the industry to invest again, strengthen its competitiveness, and generate thousands of jobs still in 2025.

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Where there was only sand and wind at 40 degrees, China built a megacity of 500,000 inhabitants with farms, wineries, and universities in the middle of the desert using melted glacier water from hundreds of kilometers away.

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