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A study has revealed that the cost of replacing an electric car's battery is becoming more affordable, being cheaper than repairing combustion engines in traditional vehicles.
The idea of replacing an electric car battery has always been a concern for consumers. Although the need for replacement is unlikely, fears about the high cost of this procedure have raised doubts about the economic viability of electric vehicles. However, that narrative may be about to change.
A recent study of recurrent points out that the cost of replacing a battery could be lower than that of repairing combustion engines by 2030.
In other words, if your electric car's battery has a serious problem, the cost of replacing it with a new one will be the same or even lower than replacing the engine of a combustion car.
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This prediction involves one of the main arguments against the adoption of electric cars. The projection is corroborated by Goldman Sachs, which estimates that battery prices will fall to $80 per kilowatt-hour by 2026 — half the value recorded in 2023.
If market trends continue, costs could reach $64 per kWh by 2030. More optimistic estimates, such as those from RMI, suggest values between $32 and $54 per kWh.
This means that a complete battery, depending on the size, can cost between 3.375 e 5.000 dollars, amounts equivalent to major repairs on gasoline engines.
More affordable batteries: direct impact on the consumer
The popularization of technologies such as batteries lithium iron phosphate (LFP)) is one of the drivers of this decline. These batteries are currently sold for prices starting at $75,3 per kWh, and manufacturers such as CATL and BYD have reduced suppliers to further reduce prices.
Furthermore, more than 40% of the cost reduction is due to the stabilization of raw material prices such as lithium and cobalt. After a period of high prices caused by “green inflation”, the market is beginning to adjust, promoting greater accessibility.
These changes directly benefit consumers. For example, a 60 kWh battery, like the one in the popular Tesla Model 3, could cost between $2.000 and $3.000.
Even without including replacement costs, these numbers are significantly more affordable than many previous ones.
Industry and consumers in alignment
Recurrent's report highlights that reducing battery costs eliminates one of consumers' main psychological barriers: the fear of exorbitant expenses in the event of technical problems with batteries.
This change could expand the appeal of electric cars, reinforcing their competitiveness against combustion engines.
For the assembled companies, the scenario is also promising. The reduction in costs allows for faster amortization of investments in the development of electric vehicles, accelerating the transition to a more sustainable portfolio.
With the lithium-ion battery market projected to be oversupplied by 2028, the coming years are set to cement this trend. Consumers and businesses alike have plenty of reason to celebrate as the industry prepares for a more affordable and sustainable future.
Not at all accessible. Very, very expensive for ordinary Brazilians.
How much did they pay for this “study”?? And for publication?!?!
I'll wait until 2030 and see if this is confirmed. It looks like a Chinese **** chatterbox...