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The tariff war between China and the US favors Brazil, which is gaining prominence in the agricultural sector with an increase in exports and growing global interest.
The intensification of the tariff war between the United States and China has opened a window of opportunity for Brazilian agriculture, which has been standing out as a stable and strategic alternative in supply overall of food.
Escalating tensions between the world's two largest economies are already causing losses for the US agricultural sector, while South American countries, especially Brazil, are reaping the benefits of growing Asian and European demand for food products.
According to a report by Financial Times published on Sunday (13), the recent decision by the American government to raise tariffs against China by up to 145% further strengthens Brazil's leading role in the agro-export scenario.
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For experts interviewed by the British newspaper, this movement represents a true boomerang effect for the US, while countries such as Brazil and Argentina are seen as the main beneficiaries of this commercial reconfiguration.
Soy, meat and poultry lead the rise in Brazilian exports
The most recent data confirms the trend: in the first quarter of 2025 alone, Brazilian beef exports to China grew 33% compared to the same period the previous year.
Poultry followed the same pace, with a 19% increase. Soybeans, the flagship of the agricultural sector, also saw a significant increase in external demand, surpassing the volumes exported by the United States.
According to agriculture analyst Isham Bhanu, the tariff war works as a “blessing” for Brazil and its South American neighbors.
“Asian countries will seek even better relations with South America,” Bhanu told FT.
Brazil consolidates leadership for China
The report also highlights that Brazil had already established itself as the main supplier of food to Beijing after the first round of tariffs between Americans and Chinese, during Donald Trump's term.
With recent developments, this leadership has expanded. In figures, Brazil's share of China's food imports jumped from 17,2% in 2016 to 25,2% in 2023.
The US saw its share plummet from 20,7% to just 13,5% in the same period.
Aurélio Pavinato, executive at SLC Agrícola, reinforced that the country is “in a privileged position to capitalize” on this tariff dispute.
“With China looking to diversify its suppliers and Europe seeing Brazil as a stable option, we are seeing a growth in foreign demand and a significant increase in prices,” he said.
Logistical concerns and new investments on the horizon
Despite the achievements, Brazil still faces challenges in its logistics infrastructure. According to the Financial Times, bottlenecks such as limited port capacity make it difficult to efficiently flow production.
However, experts point out that the current context of the tariff war could attract foreign investment in logistics, precisely to make the country even more competitive in international trade.
American infrastructure still represents a relevant advantage, but this could change if Brazil manages to modernize its export corridors.
In addition to China, Europe is also keeping an eye on Mercosur
Another highlight of the report is the expectation surrounding the ratification of the trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. For Europe, the search for alternatives to North American products also involves strengthening ties with the Brazilian agricultural sector.
Pedro Cordero, representative of the European Food Manufacturing Federation, highlighted to FT that competition between Europe, China and other countries for the same Brazilian products could put even more pressure on international food prices.
If the country manages to overcome its logistical challenges and maintain the quality and consistency of production, the scenario is promising — both for the national agricultural sector and for the Brazilian trade balance as a whole.
