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COP30 Ends With Strong Deadlock On Oil, While Sectors Such As Mining And Agriculture Dominate Negotiations. Brazilian Government Tries To Recover Consensus Amid Contradictions And Global Climate Pressures.
The Climate Conference held in Belém revealed, once again, that discussing climate adaptation is easy. The hard part is talking about oil. Although all countries acknowledged the urgent need to respond to visible droughts, floods, and heatwaves, the atmosphere changed completely when discussions touched on fossil fuels. The scenario then became fragmented. Tensions increased. And powerful economic interests began to dictate the course of the meeting.
In this context, negotiations that initially seemed to be heading toward a consensus turned into a global dispute fought over the details. COP30 also recorded a record presence of oil sector lobbyists, one of the factors that influenced the construction — and deconstruction — of the so-called “roadmap” for energy transition.
Initial Pressures And Blockage Of The Debate On Oil
Right from the first days, the deadlock around oil became evident. Countries like Colombia, Chile, members of the European Union, and various island nations insisted that the final document should include guidelines to reduce global dependence on fossil fuels. For them, this step was vital in light of the existential threat posed by global warming.
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However, the resistance was immediate and firm. Saudi Arabia, India, Russia, and other major producers argued that including oil, gas, and coal in a transition roadmap would be unacceptable. Thus, any mention of fossil fuels became grounds for veto. The preliminary text, despite facing significant pressures, did not advance.
Lula’s Return To Belém And The Attempt To Rebuild Consensus
At the height of the diplomatic crisis, President Lula decided to return to Belém even before there was a final draft. The gesture surprised negotiators. He stated that COP needed to “start thinking about how to live without fossil fuel.” The phrase resonated. But it also highlighted an important contradiction: just days earlier, his own government had authorized studies for oil exploration at the mouth of the Amazon.
The ambiguity generated negative repercussions. Still, Lula spent hours seeking allies. He called Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, António Costa, Gustavo Petro, and repeatedly spoke with Marina Silva. Nothing, however, changed the deadlock. The second draft was released without any reference to oil.
The Parallel Exit Proposed By The COP30 Presidency
When negotiations stalled, COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago presented an alternative to prevent the event from ending completely without progress. He announced that in 2026, he would present two new roadmaps — one on energy transition and another on zero deforestation.
These documents, however, will not be binding. They will not integrate the official decisions of the Climate Convention. Their strength will depend solely on the voluntary adherence of countries. Lula declared that “the seed has been planted” and stated that he intends to bring the debate to the G20 as well.
Record Presence Of The Oil Sector And Direct Influence On Decisions
This year’s edition recorded 1,600 lobbyists linked to the oil and gas industry. The number surpassed that of any national delegation, except for the Brazilian one. Since 2021, the year independent monitoring began, no conference had reached such a high presence of this sector.
The survey was conducted by the KBPO (Kick Big Polluters Out) coalition, which has long denounced the direct interference of major polluters in climate negotiations. Compared to COP29, held in Baku, there was a 12% increase.
The political weight of the oil industry became evident. While vulnerable countries called for urgent measures, major producers worked behind the scenes to remove any mention of fossils from the final text.
Mining Takes Center Stage And Tries To Position Itself As A “Solution”
At the same time, another sector assumed unexpected prominence: mining. Vale spread its presence throughout all areas of the conference. Whether in the streets, airports, international booths, or cultural actions, the mining company positioned itself as part of the climate solution.
For critics, the strategy seemed to erase recent tragedies. “Practically everywhere I go in Belém there is a mining advertisement,” said Isadora Canela from Brumadinho — a city where, in 2019, the collapse of a dam by the company killed 272 people. In Mariana, in 2015, a similar event destroyed the basin of the Rio Doce and left 19 dead.
With support from IBRAM and CEBDS, Vale leads the Coalition of Essential Minerals. The group presented a study to the COP30 presidency forecasting that global demand for strategic minerals will double by 2050. The focus is on products needed for wind turbines, batteries, and solar panels. Lithium, nickel, copper, cobalt, and rare earth elements have firmly entered the radar of the meeting.
Mining Advances, Corporate Discourses Grow, And Tensions Emerge
During the negotiations, executives from Vale and Hydro expressed optimism. One of them stated: “Mining is top, absolutely.” The phrase reinforced the feeling that the sector was trying to capture the agenda of energy transition. Another executive added: “Much has been said that agriculture is popular, but mining is top.”
However, not everyone welcomed this self-confidence. Statements from the president of Sigma Lithium to CNBC, for example, immediately generated backlash. By saying that before her company arrived in the Vale do Jequitinhonha, “the residents were former water mules,” she sparked criticism from communities that felt disrespected. One resident stated: “We were never a lost generation.”
At the same time, investigations revealed that carbon credits associated with Sigma may have been generated in areas with signs of deforestation. Furthermore, requests for research and expansion of lithium mining have already reached regions of the Amazon, including isolated indigenous territories.
Biofuels Gain Strength As Controversies Grow
A second route to replace oil came from biofuels. Brazil presented the expansion of ethanol, biodiesel, and SAF as possible pathways. Supportive lawmakers circulated among booths advocating for the sector. Among them was Deputy Arnaldo Jardim, funded by entrepreneurs linked to biofuels.
During COP30, the Commitment of Belém 4X was launched, which aims to quadruple the use of sustainable fuels by 2035. The agreement is non-binding. To meet the target, sector representatives admit the need to expand planting areas for soy, corn, and palm oil.
But there are risks. This is because 74% of Brazilian biodiesel is produced from soybean oil. And as demand increases, so does territorial pressure. The Soy Moratorium, which has prevented the purchase of grains cultivated in recently deforested areas since 2006, has become a target for attempts at flexibility.
Indigenous leaders warned that the expansion could exacerbate conflicts. “Before quadrupling biofuels, demarcate territories,” stated chief Yuna Miriam Tembé. She recalled that palm oil monoculture is already encroaching on indigenous, quilombola, and riverside communities.
The Agro Seeks Protagonism Despite Environmental Impact
Meanwhile, agribusiness tried to present itself as a pillar of energy transition. But the data shows a different reality. According to SEEG, the sector is responsible for 74% of Brazilian emissions, considering deforestation, livestock, and land use.
Despite this, agribusiness behaved as the protagonist of the solution. Agrizone, a parallel event organized near COP, even featured a barbecue with picanha. Among those present was Agriculture Minister Carlos Fávaro. Ruralists and politicians circulated the space as if they were in a traditional agribusiness fair.
But this scenario contrasted sharply with the external environment. Contracted cleaning workers were seen eating on the floor, near the bathrooms, while authorities savored meat and beer in air-conditioned areas.
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