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National Survey Shows Pressure on Ethanol During Off-Season for Sugarcane, While Gasoline and Diesel Show Moderate Decline in Large Part of the Country
In February 2026, the average price of ethanol rose in 22 Brazilian states, while gasoline and diesel registered a decline in much of the country.
According to a survey released by ValeCard, a company specialized in payment methods and mobility solutions, the analysis considered transactions conducted between February 1 and 26 at more than 25,000 accredited gas stations in Brazil.
Furthermore, the data indicates that only in Amapá does ethanol remain financially advantageous compared to gasoline, considering the competitiveness criterion of up to 70% of the fossil fuel price.
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Therefore, although ethanol continues to be an important biofuel in the Brazilian market, the recent increase has reduced its competitiveness in most of the national territory.
Ethanol Registers Rise in Almost All of the Country
First of all, ethanol showed the largest increase among the analyzed fuels during the period.
According to ValeCard, the national average price rose from R$ 4.718 in January to R$ 4.785 in February, representing an increase of R$ 0.067 or 1.42%.
Moreover, the survey indicates that 22 states recorded an increase in the biofuel price.
Among the main regional movements, the following stand out:
• Ceará – increase of 6.33%, with the price rising from R$ 4.931 to R$ 5.243
• Rio Grande do Norte – increase of 5.96%, from R$ 5.037 to R$ 5.337
• Pernambuco – increase of 5.33%, from R$ 4.950 to R$ 5.214
Additionally, in the Southeast, all states also recorded increases.
In this scenario:
• Rio de Janeiro rose 2.63%, from R$ 4.947 to R$ 5.077
• São Paulo increased 2.01%, from R$ 4.477 to R$ 4.567
• Minas Gerais advanced 1.31%, reaching R$ 4.890
On the other hand, even with an increase of 2.39%, Amapá maintained the lowest average price in the country, with R$ 4.490 per liter.
Gasoline Declines in 16 States and Nationally
Meanwhile, gasoline showed a decline in much of the Brazilian territory.
On the national average, the price per liter fell from R$ 6.483 in January to R$ 6.462 in February, representing a decrease of R$ 0.021 or -0.32%.
Among the highlights of the reduction are:
• Federal District – decrease of 2.95%, from R$ 6.579 to R$ 6.385
• Goiás – decrease of 0.71%, reaching R$ 6.465
• Mato Grosso do Sul – reduction of 0.40%, with an average price of R$ 6.449
Additionally, in the South of the country, a declining trend was also recorded.
In this context:
• Rio Grande do Sul fell 1.38%, from R$ 6.360 to R$ 6.272
• Santa Catarina decreased 0.61%, to R$ 6.523
• Paraná, on the other hand, remained stable at R$ 6.572
Despite this, the North region continues to hold the highest prices in the country.
In this sense, Acre maintains the most expensive gasoline in Brazil, with R$ 7.436 per liter, even after a slight decrease recorded in February.
Diesel S-10 Falls in Most of the Country
Additionally, diesel S-10 also showed a contraction in most of the federation units.
On the national average, the fuel price fell from R$ 6.336 in January to R$ 6.309 in February, representing a decrease of R$ 0.027 or -0.43%.
According to the survey, 22 states recorded a reduction in the price of diesel.
Among the highlights are:
• Santa Catarina – largest decrease in the country, with -1.49%
• Rio Grande do Sul – average price fell to R$ 5.999, the lowest in Brazil
• Maranhão – decrease of 1.39%
Furthermore, in the Southeast, all states registered a decrease.
In this scenario:
• Minas Gerais fell to R$ 6.362
• São Paulo decreased to R$ 6.223
• Rio de Janeiro showed a slight reduction, reaching R$ 6.422
Only One State Still Justifies Refueling with Ethanol
Finally, according to the methodology from ValeCard, ethanol is only justified when it costs up to 70% of the price of gasoline.
Considering this criterion, only Amapá remains advantageous for the biofuel.
In the state, the average values are:
• Gasoline: R$ 7.045
• Ethanol: R$ 4.490
• Ethanol/Gasoline Ratio: 64%
Therefore, despite recent fluctuations in the national fuel market, ethanol lost competitiveness in almost all of the country during February 2026.
According to Marcelo Braga, director of Mobility and Operations at ValeCard, the movement reflects a natural adjustment after pressures at the beginning of the year, influenced by the ICMS adjustment and the off-season for sugarcane.
Additionally, Braga states that the international scenario can also alter the behavior of prices.
According to the executive, the escalation of conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, especially related to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, may affect the global oil flow and pressure the energy market.
In light of this, any changes in the international price of oil may generate new impacts on Brazilian pumps in the coming months.
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