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More Than a Month After Its Last Adjustment, Petrobras Is Expected to Raise Gasoline and Diesel Prices This Week, Which Are Below the PPI
Both the Palácio do Planalto and the Ministry of Economy expect Petrobras to announce a new price increase for diesel and gasoline sometime this week, as reported by Lauro Jardim’s column in the newspaper O Globo last Monday (the 13th).
Petrobras’ last adjustment took place on May 9, more than a month ago, when the price of diesel was changed by 8.9%. Gasoline prices, on the other hand, have not been modified for nearly 100 days, as the last increase was announced by the state-owned company in March, amounting to 18.8%.
During this period, Petrobras underwent another CEO change, which may be related to President Jair Bolsonaro’s dissatisfaction with the impacts observed on his popularity due to rising fuel prices, such as gasoline and diesel.
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Diesel Price Is 14% Below the PPI, While Gasoline Is 31% Lower Compared to Import Prices
According to estimates from the financial market, the prices practiced by Petrobras at its refineries are about 14% below the PPI (parity import prices) for diesel and 31% for gasoline.
According to the ANP (National Petroleum Agency), the average price of gasoline to the consumer corresponds to R$ 7.247, while the price of diesel is equivalent to R$ 6.886.
The BTG report published last week indicated that Petrobras is likely to remain under pressure due to the project (PL 18/2022), which aims to establish a reduction in taxes on fuels and is expected to be voted on in the coming weeks.
In this context, the bank analyzed that, with the project, any future responsibility for higher fuel prices may end up being almost entirely attributed to the state-owned company from now on. For BTG, which prefers smaller producers to ride the oil thesis, all of this should continue to prevent Petrobras’ business from aligning completely with its fundamentals.
This Monday, Brent crude oil, which is used as a reference by the company, fell by 1.38%, but continued to trade above US$ 120. Petrobras’ shares fell by 2.39%, to R$ 28.94.
President Jair Bolsonaro Criticizes Petrobras and Advocates for the Approval of the Fuel PEC
President Jair Bolsonaro stated, also on Monday (the 13th), his support for imposing a ceiling on ICMS, in a campaign against Petrobras. He also added that, if the proposal is approved, the price of gasoline – which has already reached the mark of 5 dollars in the United States – is expected to drop by an average of R$ 2, while the price of diesel should decrease by around R$ 1.
During an interview with Rádio CBN-Recife, the head of the Executive stated that the government will cover the ICMS for diesel charged by states, in an effort to reduce state taxes. According to him, the State is not collecting, it is losing, but it is necessary to prioritize the people, who suffer from high gasoline prices.
Bolsonaro also continued to attack Petrobras, while blaming the war in Ukraine for rising fuel prices. For him, Petrobras is an exceptional company; however, it does not present a social bias as prescribed by the Constitution itself. The president believes that the state-owned company is making abusive profits, which grow along with the crisis.
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