The Industrial Recovery Signals Optimism With Positive Expectations For Raw Materials, Exports, And Future Investments In September.
The recent Industrial Survey conducted by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) shed light on a notable recovery of industrial production in August of this year, while the employment level in the sector remained stable. The survey also highlights the growth of Installed Capacity Utilization (UCI) and a significant decrease in excess inventories between July and August.
A Month of Improvements
Conducted with the participation of 1,645 companies from September 1 to 13, 2023, the survey suggests that, although August did not set records, the industry experienced a considerable improvement. Marcelo Azevedo, the CNI’s Economic Analysis Manager, states that the results of August represent a positive, albeit moderate, sign for the industrial sector. He notes that, after two months of decline, the production evolution index saw a slight increase, reaching 51.7 points in August.
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Interest Rate Impacts on Growth
Even considering that August is traditionally a month of more optimistic expectations, the increase in production between July and August was more subtle compared to previous years, due to the influence of high interest rates on the industry, Azevedo comments.
On the other hand, in terms of employability, the figures were more encouraging than expected. The employment evolution index reached 49.6 points. Although still below the 50-point threshold, it suggests minimal variation in employment between July and August of this year.
Highlights on Inventories and Investments
In August 2023, the UCI increased by 1 percentage point compared to July, reaching 70%, while remaining below the recurring average for August months. The inventory evolution indicator for final industry products recorded 50.5 points, indicating a less intense pace in inventory growth between July and August.
Moreover, the optimism of industrial entrepreneurs was evident in investment intentions, reaching 54.6 points in September, the highest value of the year, surpassing the historical average for this month.
Promising Future for the Industry
The outlook for the coming months remains positive, with the raw materials purchase expectation index marking 53.2 points, a slight increase compared to the expectations from August. Positivity is also observed in expectations regarding exports, employability, and increased industrial demand. Still, the data reveals a certain caution, with a more moderate optimism than usually perceived in past Septembers.
Photo: Journalism – CNI

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