The industrial recovery signals optimism with positive expectations for raw materials, exports and future investments in September.
The recent Industrial Survey survey, promoted by National Confederation of Industry (CNI), shed light on a remarkable recovery in industrial production in August this year, at the same time that the level of employment in the sector remained constant. The survey also highlights the growth of Installed Capacity Utilization (UCI) and a significant reduction in excess stocks between July and August.
A month of improvements
Carried out with the participation of 1.645 companies in the period from September 1st to 13th, 2023, the research suggests that, although the month of August did not break records, the industry experienced considerable improvement. Marcelo Azevedo, Economic Analysis Manager at CNI, states that the August results represent a positive, albeit moderate, sign for the industrial sector. He notes that, after two months of decline, the production evolution index increased slightly, reaching 51,7 points in August.
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Impacts of interest on growth
Even considering that August is traditionally a month of more optimistic expectations, the increase in production between July and August was more subtle compared to previous years, due to the influence of high interest rates on industry, comments Azevedo.
On the other hand, in terms of employability, the numbers were more encouraging than forecasts. The evolution index in the number of employees reached 49,6 points. Although it is still below the 50-point line, it suggests that there was a minimal change in employment between July and August this year.
Highlights on stocks and investments
In August 2023, the UCI there was an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the month of July, reaching 70%, however, remaining below the recurring average for the months of August. The indicator for the evolution of the level of inventories for final industrial products scored 50,5 points, indicating a less intense pace in the increase in inventories between July and August.
Furthermore, the optimism of industrial entrepreneurs was present in investment intentions, reaching 54,6 points in September, the highest value of the year, surpassing the historical average for that month.
Promising future for the industry
The outlook for the coming months continues to rise, with the raw materials purchase expectation index reaching 53,2 points, a slight increase compared to August expectations. Positivity is also seen in expectations regarding exports, employability and increased industrial demand. Even so, the data reveals a certain caution, with more moderate optimism than usually perceived in past Septembers.
Photo: Journalism – CNI