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Pre-Salt Auction Yields Below Expected, Frustrating Government’s Anticipations for Oil Revenues in 2025

Written by Rannyson Moura
Published on 04/12/2025 at 13:16
Leilão do pré-sal arrecada R$ 8,8 bilhões com áreas de petróleo em Mero e Atapu, abaixo da expectativa inicial do governo federal.
Leilão do pré-sal arrecada R$ 8,8 bilhões com áreas de petróleo em Mero e Atapu, abaixo da expectativa inicial do governo federal.
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Pre-Salt Auction Raises R$ 8.8 Billion with Oil Areas in Mero and Atapu, Below the Federal Government’s Initial Expectation.

The auction of pre-salt areas held this Thursday (4) secured a billion-dollar revenue, but did not achieve the expected result from the federal government. With a revenue of R$ 8.8 billion, the event fell short of the official forecast of R$ 10.2 billion, an amount considered strategic for the fiscal balance of 2025.

The episode reignites the debate about the early use of oil revenues to close public accounts.

Organized by PPSA (Pré-Sal Petróleo S.A), the auction involved portions of fields already in production and attracted limited interest from the market.

Petrobras and Shell Concentrated Offers in the Pre-Salt Auction

The competition had limited participation. A consortium formed by Petrobras and Shell was the only one to submit proposals and secured areas in two relevant pre-salt fields: Mero and Atapu. The Tupi field, one of the most traditional oil-producing fields in the country, received no bids.

In Mero, the submitted bid was R$ 7.8 billion, surpassing the minimum amount set at R$ 7.6 billion. In Atapu, the offer reached R$ 1 billion, above the floor of R$ 863 million defined in the announcement.

The absence of competition and the lack of proposals for Tupi helped explain the difference between the revenue obtained and the amount projected by the government.

Small Percentages Were at Stake in the Oil Fields

Although the amounts are significant, the auctioned areas correspond to relatively small portions of the fields. In Mero, only 3.5% of the deposit was at stake. In Atapu, the percentage was 0.9%. In Tupi, where there were no bidders, the lot represented 0.8%.

Even with small fractions, the assets are considered strategic due to their high productivity and the significant volumes of oil already proven in the areas.

TCU Authorization Came with Warnings

One day before the auction, on Wednesday (3), the TCU (Tribunal de Contas da União) authorized the event’s execution. However, the approval came with important criticisms and caveats regarding the government’s decision.

According to the tribunal, there was no thorough assessment of whether the auction would, in fact, be the best alternative to bolster the Union’s cash flow. According to the TCU, “the decision was made based on the urgent need to secure resources to help meet fiscal targets.”

The agency also highlighted risks associated with the anticipation of oil revenues, pointing to possible long-term value losses for the Union.

In addition to the criticism regarding the lack of comparative studies, the TCU drew attention to the implicit cost of the operation. According to the tribunal, there is a “potential loss of value for the Union, as there is an implicit cost in the decision to advance these revenues, in addition to the absence of analysis of other options by the Executive Branch.”

The warning amplifies the debate on the recurrent use of oil assets as a short-term instrument for fiscal adjustment, especially in a scenario of pressure on public accounts.

Meanwhile, the government continues to rely on the oil sector as a significant source of revenue, even though the auction result fell short of initial expectations.

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Rannyson Moura

Graduado em Publicidade e Propaganda pela UERN; mestre em Comunicação Social pela UFMG e doutorando em Estudos de Linguagens pelo CEFET-MG. Atua como redator freelancer desde 2019, com textos publicados em sites como Baixaki, MinhaSérie e Letras.mus.br. Academicamente, tem trabalhos publicados em livros e apresentados em eventos da área. Entre os temas de pesquisa, destaca-se o interesse pelo mercado editorial a partir de um olhar que considera diferentes marcadores sociais.

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