Portuguese 
English 
Spanish 
3 min of reading 
South American Gasoline And Diesel Market Shows Slow Recovery Amid Pandemic
Rich and first-world countries have better conditions to emerge from the economic crisis caused by the pandemic, which is not the case in Latin America. Today, the South American oil market continues to recover, but the numbers are still well below those of 2019. The study “Latin America Oil Market Outlook” conducted by S&P Global Platts shows important data about the gasoline and diesel market in Latin America.
The S&P Global Platts study shows that Mexico and Brazil, the two main engines of Latin America, are experiencing numbers below expectations at the moment. The forecast indicates that Latin America will reach a demand of 2.42 million barrels per day in the second half. These numbers are 255,000 barrels less compared to 201, the year before the pandemic. The report highlights the recovery of gasoline and diesel demand.
The magnitude of the recovery in demand to pre-pandemic levels in the region is quite large and likely unattainable in 2021, as COVID-19 continues to affect mobility in several countries, despite ongoing vaccination efforts.
-
Petrobras evaluates suspension of sales to distributors and considers canceling the cooking gas auction following guidelines from the Federal Government.
-
Lula reveals a masterstroke by Petrobras to undo a deal made by Bolsonaro, which involves the return of an important refinery that currently produces less than half of what was expected and makes Brazil dependent on international diesel.
-
A study confirms that the natural gas sector will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil by 0.5% and accelerate the energy transition by 2026.
-
Petrobras implements a severe adjustment and confirms a 55% increase in the price of aviation kerosene with a proposal for installment payments for the companies.
An important piece of data from the report was about Brazilian demand for gasoline/ethanol. It highlights that the demand for these fuels is relatively weak in Brazil. An example is the demand for 385,000 hydrated ethanol in February, which gained momentum and reached 385,000 barrels, an increase of 25,000 compared to January, but a decrease of 15,000 year-on-year.
Second Wave of COVID Harmed The Recovery Of The Oil – Gasoline And Diesel Market
The shutdown in São Paulo, the largest fuel market in the country, has resulted in a much slower recovery for the market in Brazil than anticipated. “With a persistently high rate of COVID infections in the country, the risk to our demand outlook is heavily tilted to the downside in the short term”.
A good piece of news for the diesel market is that the expectation for the second half is that the country will reach a demand of 2.58 million barrels per day. If these numbers are achieved, it will be an increase of 375,000 barrels/day compared to the same period last year. On the other hand, when compared to 2019, when there was no pandemic, it is a difference of less -135,000 barrels per day.
One very important point from the report is that the demand for fuels should continue to grow throughout 2021, even if it is a low growth. High fuel prices, a high number of COVID infections, lack of economic stimulus from the government, and high unemployment are the main reasons for the weak demand increase.
Seja o primeiro a reagir!