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Even With The Chinese Slowdown, Brazil Maintains Record Pace of Beef Shipments, Reaching 95.7% of Total Exported in 2024 and Consolidating One of The Best Historical Performances of The Sector, With Mexico and The USA Increasing Participation in Purchases
The volume of beef exported by Brazil in October consolidates a historical performance. In the first 18 working days of the month, 15.36 thousand tons were exported, a 2.3% increase compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex). The partial result already represents 95.7% of the total volume exported in 2024, indicating a concrete possibility of a new annual record.
According to market consultant Hyberville Neto from HN Agro, exports would have to practically stop for the record not to be confirmed by the end of October. According to the Canal Rural portal, the analyst points out that, even with occasional adjustments in international demand, the Brazilian exporter base remains solid, driven by price competitiveness, stable supply, and favorable exchange rates.
Chinese Seasonality and Balance Between Destinations
The slight reduction in purchases from China is treated as a seasonal movement. According to Neto, the slowdown in the last two months is expected, as the country typically reduces the pace of imports between November and December.
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In the past three years, this trend has repeated itself: Chinese purchases fell by 26.9%, 5.8%, and 21.8% when comparing the volumes from November with those from October.
Nevertheless, the numbers for 2025 indicate a more balanced scenario. China has been buying more beef from Brazil than in the same period of 2024, which should soften the usual year-end decline.
At the same time, new markets are gaining relevance, reducing Brazil’s dependence on the Asian giant and contributing to the stability of average export prices.
Mexico Takes Center Stage in Exports
Among the new buyers, Mexico has stood out. The Latin American country has surpassed Hong Kong and other traditional destinations, becoming the second-largest importer of Brazilian beef in September.
In October, Mexico’s strong performance continued, compensating for part of the decline in Chinese demand and reinforcing the export flow in the last quarter of the year.
For consultant Hyberville Neto, diversification of destinations is essential for sector balance. The expansion of Brazilian presence in the Mexican market occurs at a time of greater commercial integration in Latin America, benefiting producers and slaughterhouses with new opportunities and reduced geographic risks.
Positive Expectations With The United States
Another point of attention is the possible commercial rapprochement with the United States, which currently imposes tariffs of 50% on Brazilian beef.
This topic gained traction after the recent meeting between President Lula and U.S. Leader Donald Trump in Washington. According to market analysts, a tariff agreement could significantly increase the flow of exports, balancing the weight of Asia in external sales.
According to Hyberville Neto, the United States have already increased purchases in October, and if they maintain this pace, they could represent significant volumes in the short term.
The consolidation of this market would reduce Brazil’s exposure to Asian fluctuations and expand the space for premium cuts and higher value-added products.
Outlook and Impact on The Sector
The performance of exports reinforces the efficiency of the beef production chain, which maintains competitiveness even in the face of logistical challenges and global demand variation.
The current scenario indicates a continuous advancement of external sales, supported by controlled production costs, sanitary certifications, and diversification of destinations.
With the performance in October, Brazil consolidates its position as the world’s largest exporter of beef, combining production scale, traceability, and access to multiple markets.
For analysts, the result reinforces confidence in Brazilian agribusiness and broadens investment prospects in the animal protein sector.
With almost all the volume of 2024 already matched in less than ten months, beef exports in 2025 are on track for a new record, even in the face of the Chinese slowdown.
The strengthening of Mexico and the resumption of dialogue with the United States reinforce Brazil’s role as a strategic global supplier.
In your opinion, is market diversification enough to maintain the growth of beef exports or does the country still rely too much on demand from China?
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