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The Global Dispute Between Oil-Producing Countries and Renewable Energy Advocates Exposes Geopolitical Tensions, Economic Interests, and the Real Challenges of Energy Transition in the International Scenario.
The discussion about the future of oil is back at the center of the international agenda. In recent years, countries from different regions have made public commitments to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Still, the practice shows a more complex scenario. While renewable generation capacity grows, oil and gas production continues to expand.
This contrast became evident during COP30, held in Belém, when the proposal to create a “roadmap” for energy transition exposed the division between nations heavily dependent on oil and those that see clean sources as an economic and strategic opportunity.
Renewable Growth Does Not Slow Oil Production
In the last two years, over 90% of the new energy capacity added globally came from renewable sources. The advancement has continued in 2025, reinforcing the perception that the energy transition is underway. Still, oil production has not slowed.
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Petrobras implements a severe adjustment and confirms a 55% increase in the price of aviation kerosene with a proposal for installment payments for the companies.
The United States, the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, has increased its diplomatic pressure for other countries to continue consuming fossil fuels. This stance contrasts with multilateral discussions on decarbonization and demonstrates how oil remains a strategic asset in the geopolitical landscape.
COP30 and the Clash Over the “Fossil Fuel Roadmap”
During COP30, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advocated for the creation of a structured plan to overcome dependence on fossil fuels. The proposal sought to transform generic commitments into coordinated actions, with clear targets and timelines.
More than 80 countries declared support for the initiative. Among them were small island nations, directly threatened by the effects of climate change, as well as African and Oceanian countries that see clean energy as new fronts for development.
However, resistance was led by oil and gas-producing countries, especially members of the Arab Group. The opposition prevented the “roadmap” from being incorporated into the final text of the conference, revealing the political weight of the oil sector in climate negotiations.
Petro States Versus Electro States: A Strategic Dispute
The division became known, in diplomatic circles, as the clash between “petro states” and “electro states.” On one side, countries whose public revenues heavily depend on oil. On the other, nations that have already diversified their energy matrices or that bet on renewables as a growth driver.
This dispute is not only environmental. It involves jobs, tax revenues, social stability, and energy sovereignty. For many oil producers, quickly abandoning fossil fuels represents significant economic risks.
The Role of Brazil and the Attempt at Reconciliation
Diplomat André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, president of COP30, committed to leading the creation of two “roadmaps” in 2026: one focused on combating deforestation and another focused on the transition from fossil fuels.
The proposal envisions a broad dialogue process. Governments, companies, workers, academics, and civil organizations should participate in the discussions. The goal is to build solutions that consider both the global supply and demand for oil as well as social justice issues.
Oil-Dependent Countries and the Challenge of Diversification
For many countries, oil remains the main source of revenue. Nigeria is often cited as an example. Oil exports account for up to 90% of government revenues and foreign currency inflows.
At the same time, about 39% of Nigeria’s population does not have access to electricity. The paradox exposes how dependence on oil does not necessarily guarantee internal energy development. Additionally, the country has vast solar, wind, and hydropower potential that remains largely untapped.
Europe Accelerates the Reduction of Oil Demand
The European Union has adopted a more aggressive path in reducing fossil fuel consumption. The bloc has set the goal of obtaining 42.5% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030.
Additionally, the European Emissions Trading System has been expanded. The tool already covers power generation, energy-intensive industries, and aviation, and is expected to include sectors like transportation and housing in the coming years.
United States Continue Against the Transition
In the United States, recent energy policy reinforces the centrality of oil and gas in the energy matrix. The government argues that fossil fuels will remain the main source of energy in the coming decades.
Despite this, the International Energy Agency projects that renewables will continue to grow faster than any other source, driven by falling costs and global demand.
Investments Grow in Renewables and in Oil
Globally, investments in renewable energy in 2025 were about twice as much as those allocated to fossil fuels. Still, investments in oil and gas also increased, driven by the expansion of energy demand.
The World Energy Outlook report indicates significant growth in investments in liquefied natural gas, with a forecasted 50% increase in global supply by 2030. About half of this volume is expected to come from the United States, although doubts remain about the market’s absorption of this new supply.
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