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Oil Prices Drop Amid Storms and US-Iran Crisis. Petrobras Cuts Gasoline Prices, But Fuel Remains Above International Levels.
Oil prices, Petrobras, fuel, winter storms, and the US-Iran situation are the central themes of a pivotal week for the energy market.
On Monday (01/26/26), international oil prices fell after recent sharp increases, as investors assessed both the impacts of extreme weather in the United States and the geopolitical risk involving Washington and Tehran.
This external scenario helped underpin Petrobras’ decision to reduce gasoline prices in Brazil, even though the prices remain above international parity.
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Oil Prices Drop After Recent Peaks
Oil prices ended the day slightly lower, after rising more than 2% in the previous session. The Brent crude oil, a global benchmark, fell by US$ 0.29, or 0.4%, to US$ 65.59.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a US benchmark, decreased by US$ 0.44, or 0.7%, closing at US$ 60.63 per barrel.
Despite the adjustment, both contracts accumulated a weekly gain of 2.7% and reached, on Friday, their highest level since January 14.
Thus, this week’s movement was interpreted more as profit-taking than as a trend reversal.
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Winter Storms in the US Affect Production
One of the most relevant factors is the impact of winter storms that hit key producing regions in the United States.
Analysts estimate that up to 2 million barrels per day were not produced over the weekend, equivalent to about 15% of US domestic output.
According to the consultancy Energy Aspects, the disruptions peaked on Saturday. The Permian Basin, the country’s main production hub, accounted for most of the losses, with approximately 1.5 million barrels per day out of the market at that time.
Meanwhile, the situation began to improve at the beginning of the week. Losses in the Permian dropped to around 700,000 barrels per day, and it is expected that production will be fully normalized by January 30.
Nonetheless, the incident has reignited alerts about the vulnerability of US energy infrastructure to extreme weather events.
US-Iran Tensions Keep Investors Cautious
Besides the weather, geopolitical risk remains on the radar. US-Iran tensions have come back into focus after statements from US President Donald Trump, who claimed that the United States has an “armada” on its way to Iran, although he hopes not to need to use it.
On Friday, a high-ranking Iranian official responded by stating that any attack would be treated “as a total war against us.”
This kind of rhetoric raises the perception of risk in the Middle East, a strategic region for global oil supply.
On the other hand, operators assess that, so far, there have been no effective disruptions in supply, which helps explain the recent price correction.
Global Supply: Kazakhstan and OPEC Enter the Game
While the market monitors the United States and the Middle East, other producers also influence oil prices.
Kazakhstan has indicated that it will resume production at the Tengiz field, its largest facility, after a fire and power outage.
Although initial volumes are expected to be reduced, the news helped counterbalance some concerns about supply.
Additionally, OPEC and its allies are expected to keep production levels unchanged at their next meeting scheduled for February 1.
The group had increased production throughout 2025 but announced a pause to contain the prolonged weakness in prices.
Reflections in Brazil: Petrobras Cuts Gasoline
The drop in international oil prices has led Petrobras to announce the first reduction in fuels in Brazil in 2026.
Starting this Tuesday (01/27/26), the average price of gasoline sold to distributors will decrease by 5.2%, dropping to R$ 2.57 per liter—a decrease of R$ 0.14.
This marks the third cut since mid-last year. The first occurred in June and the second in October, when the price dropped from R$ 2.85 to R$ 2.71.
Analysts project a relief of 1% to 2% at the pumps, although the impact on the final consumer depends on distributors and gas stations.
Gasoline Still Above International Levels
Even with the adjustment, data from Abicom, an association that brings together fuel importers, indicates that Petrobras’ gasoline prices remain about 5% above international levels.
Since the end of November, this difference has been as high as 11%.
According to Sérgio Araújo, president of Abicom, the devaluation of oil globally will not be fully perceived by Brazilian consumers.
“The average price per liter sold by Petrobras will still be R$ 0.12 higher than abroad,” he stated.
Industry sources assess that the reduction is also a response to Petrobras losing market share to importers, who already account for up to 20% of gasoline sales in the country, benefiting from falling international prices and the recent appreciation of the real against the dollar.
Itaú BBA Considered Cut Below Expectations
Financial market analysts also reacted with caution. A report from Itaú BBA classified the cut as “below expectations.”
According to the bank, the gap between domestic prices and international parity had been widening since November, leading investors to anticipate a larger adjustment.
Prior to the reduction, gasoline prices in Brazil were about 10% higher than the external scenario. After the cut, they should remain approximately 5% above the international parity price (IPP).
Diesel, Politics, and Market Distortions
For experts, there is a significant political component in the decision. Petrobras only reduced gasoline prices, leaving diesel unchanged.
This movement occurs while diesel has been sold in Brazil below international prices for several weeks.
Data from Abicom shows that recently, state diesel was between 2% and 9% cheaper than abroad. According to analysts, this discourages imports and creates market distortions.
Pedro Rodrigues, a partner at the CBIE consultancy, assesses that although there was room to reduce gasoline prices, diesel should face an increase.
“In diesel, the reverse is not true. The state is selling below international market prices, which creates artificialities and uncertainty,” he says.
Cumulative Reduction and Limits of Pass-through
Since December 2022, the price of gasoline at the refinery has fallen by R$ 0.50 per liter. Considering inflation, the cumulative reduction is 26.9%, according to Petrobras.
In the case of diesel, the cumulative fall over the same period reaches 36.3%.
Still, the question remains whether the gasoline reduction will be fully passed on to the pumps. The pass-through depends on a complex chain involving distributors, margins at gas stations, and state taxes.
Scenario Remains Volatile
The oil market enters the end of January marked by high volatility. Winter storms, US-Iran tensions, OPEC decisions, and movements from major producers continue to shape oil prices worldwide.
In Brazil, Petrobras navigates a delicate line between international alignment, competitiveness, and political pressures.
For the consumer, relief exists, but it is still partial—and conditioned on a global scenario that remains far from stable.
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