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Latin America and the Caribbean Demonstrated Resilience in 2022 in a Challenging Year for the Global Economy and Oil Prices, Which Faced Inflation, Conflicts, Extreme Weather Events, and Supply Chain Disruptions.
While global GDP growth slowed from 6% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022, the region will grow 3.5% in 2022, although the two largest economies in the region – Brazil and Mexico – grew 2.8% and 2.1%, respectively. The price of oil boosted some of the best performers in the region, including the emerging oil producer Guyana, which recorded a 57.8% increase in GDP after hitting a record of 391,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September.
In December, U.S. energy company Hess announced that the country could produce 1.2 million bpd of oil by 2027. Venezuela, in turn, recorded 6% growth in 2022 with increased oil production after negative growth in 2014-20 and 0.5% growth in 2021. Higher oil prices may also help boost the economies of Brazil and Mexico in 2022.
Beyond The Price Of Oil, Other Factors Were Essential For The Development
In addition to oil, several factors are driving regional development, mainly the expansion of global and regional trade agreements, increasing socio-environmental factors to address climate change, and growing demand for minerals for clean energy production and adoption of digital technologies.
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Many employers do not know, but the law guarantees domestic workers a 25% increase in salary during trips, 50% for overtime, 20% for night shifts, and 17 additional benefits that can lead to labor lawsuits if not paid.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Panama will grow 7.5% in 2022 as its services sector (75% of economic output) recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic. Several Caribbean countries also experienced significant GDP growth, including Saint Kitts and Nevis (9.8%), Saint Lucia (9.1%), Dominica (6%), Dominican Republic (5.3%), and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (5%).
Evolving Trade Relationship
Global supply chain disruptions in 2022, including capacity constraints, rising freight costs, labor shortages, and port slowdowns, weigh heavily on the global economy, but Latin America and the Caribbean are capitalizing on the rise of the so-called China +1 strategy, with companies and governments able to diversify production by doing business in other countries while maintaining a significant presence in China. Additionally, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement signed in 2018 to replace the two-decade North American Free Trade Agreement has begun to show its value in boosting trade among the three signatories.
After fluctuating between US$ 30 billion and US$ 35 billion in 2021, Mexico’s monthly imports to the U.S. will hit a record of US$ 37 billion to US$ 41 billion in 2022. In the first half of 2022, trade volume between Brazil and the United States reached a record of US$ 42.7 billion per month, a 43% increase from 2021, and bilateral trade volume also reached a record. In September, the two countries signed a mutual recognition agreement allowing recognized Brazilian companies to expedite the export process and reduce bureaucracy. Meanwhile, Chinese investment in Latin American factories, especially in Mexico, will increase in 2022 as the East Asian country seeks to circumvent U.S. tariffs and lower shipping costs to the U.S.
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