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In 2021/22, Sugarcane Production Was Around 520 Million Tons, Now the Expectation Is for an Increase of Up to 7%.
The 2022/23 sugarcane harvest begins this Friday (01) in Brazil. The sector’s projections indicate a partial improvement compared to the 2021/2022 cycle. Market indications suggest that mills in the Central-South region of the country should crush 562 million tons, compared to 525 million from the previous harvest, projecting ethanol production at over 29.8 billion liters (27.7 billion in 2021/2022).
Despite the forecast of an increase in the sugarcane harvest starting this year, which is greater than the previous season, sugar millers across the country are concerned due to the climatic conditions in the first third of the planting period. This is because, according to agricultural consultancy Datagro, there is a possibility of worsening conditions due to fires, dry weather, and frosts that occurred last year.
See Below the Table with Comparisons and Projections of Sugarcane Production and Perspectives for Ethanol Production
| 2021-22 Harvest | | 2022-23 Harvest (Expectation of About 7%) |
|---|---|
| 525 million tons | | 562 million tons |
| Ethanol Production in 2021/22 | | Ethanol Production in 2021/22 (Expectation of About 7%) |
| 27.7 billion | | 29.8 billion liters |
Sugarcane Harvest Grows, but Sector Has Shown Better Results
The projection of an increase of up to 7% in sugarcane production, and consequently in ethanol, at Brazilian mills in 2022/2023 is still far from what the country has been capable of producing.
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The 2020/21 harvest was 605.46 million tons, marking the last best result recorded at the mills. Prior to that, production in 2016/17 reached 607.14 million, and in 2015/16 the figure was 617.71 million.
Will Ethanol Prices Decrease with the Increase in Sugarcane Production?
It will still be the price of oil that determines the pace of adjustments to ethanol prices at fuel pumps throughout 2022, say economists. This is because the price of biofuel derived from sugarcane follows gasoline price increases. In other words, if alcohol becomes too cheap, everyone will buy it, and it could run out.
Last week, the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) recorded an increase in the price of hydrated ethanol per liter in 17 states and the Federal District, reaching an average of R$ 4.95. Drivers of flex fuel vehicles who want to know the best choice between gasoline and ethanol need to make a calculation about the prices of both fuels.
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