Portuguese 
Forecast focuses on the highest accumulations in western Santa Catarina and the central-western region of Paraná, where rainfall could reach 200 mm within 48 hours; by the end of the week, a low-pressure system between Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina may spread storms across all three states. The South Region will experience a new wave of instability […]
Forecast focuses on the highest accumulations in western Santa Catarina and the central-western region of Paraná, where rainfall could reach 200 mm within 48 hours; by the end of the week, a low-pressure system between Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina may spread storms across all three states.
The South Region will face a new wave of instability following an intense cold spell that brought snow, sleet, and frost. Forecasts indicate a gradual increase in temperatures starting Tuesday (8), followed by the return of heavy rain, hail, and gusty winds.
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Meteorologist Arthur Müller from Canal Rural predicts a more pronounced change starting Wednesday (9), with particular attention on western Santa Catarina and central-western Paraná.
In these areas, accumulations could reach 200 millimeters within 48 hours. The expected volume increases the risk of flooding and landslides and may disrupt or delay agricultural work in regions affected by excessive soil moisture.
The instability anticipated for Wednesday is also associated with the presence of a meteorological trough, which promotes the formation of storms in western Santa Catarina and Paraná. The forecast includes episodes of intense rainfall accompanied by hail and strong winds.
Western Santa Catarina and Paraná Expect Highest Volumes
The 200 millimeters do not represent a uniform forecast for the entire South. The largest accumulations are concentrated in western Santa Catarina and central-western Paraná, while other parts of the three states are expected to receive lesser amounts of precipitation.
In other areas of Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul, the anticipated volumes range between 50 and 70 millimeters. Even with lower totals compared to the high-attention areas, the rain can cause localized flooding where drainage is an issue.
Soil conditions are also critical for agricultural activities. The amount of rainfall expected may delay field operations due to excessive moisture, particularly during more persistent precipitation or intense storms.
On Friday (11), the forecast indicates the formation of a low-pressure system between Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. This system may trigger heavy rain and storms across all three states and is part of the meteorological sequence associated with the new extratropical cyclone expected in September.
The change comes just days after the passage of the most intense cold across the South. Starting Tuesday, temperatures will gradually rise, as the cold air mass gives way to favorable conditions for rain advancement and storm occurrence in parts of the region.
This forecast thus places different weather episodes within the same week: first, low temperatures caused by the cold air mass; then, a recovery in temperatures and increased instability. The period of greatest concern for heavy rain begins on Wednesday and continues through the end of the week.
Southeast to Experience Rain Before Heat Returns
The Southeast will also start the week under low temperatures and rain in parts of the region. In São Paulo, this Monday (7) is forecast to be overcast, with frequent precipitation in northern, eastern, and coastal areas, and a more intense feeling of cold in certain areas.
The drop in temperature is most noticeable in São Paulo, along the coast, and in the Ribeira Valley. By Wednesday, the forecast indicates intermittent rain with sunny periods in nearly all areas of the state.
In the agricultural regions of the Southeast, expected rainfall totals range between 20 and 40 millimeters through Wednesday. The precipitation may slow down agricultural work during the wetter periods, although the projected volumes are lower than those anticipated in the most unstable areas of the South Region.
In Minas Gerais, particularly in the northern half, conditions for rain showers persist. The Triângulo Mineiro and areas in the central region may experience heavy rainfall and thunderstorms before the shift to warmer temperatures in the latter half of the week.
Starting Thursday (10th), heat will return to the Southeast, with temperatures expected to exceed 30°C in the states of the region. Highs could reach 38°C in northwestern São Paulo, in the Triângulo Mineiro, and in northern Minas Gerais.
In the South, however, rain continues to be the main meteorological factor in the second half of the week. The formation of a low-pressure system predicted for Friday could bring storms to all three states, while the west of Santa Catarina and the central-west of Paraná are expected to see the highest accumulated rainfall during this period.
