2025/26 Sugarcane Harvest Sees Decline; Ethanol Production Raises Concerns

Written by Sara Aquino

Published on 17/10/2025 at 19:55

Updated on 17/10/2025 at 20:15

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2025/26 Sugarcane Harvest Expected to End at 596.97 Million Tons, with a Decrease in Ethanol Production; Agroconsult Predicts Recovery in 2026/27.

The 2025/26 sugarcane harvest in the Midwest and South of Brazil is expected to end with a crush of 596.97 million tons, according to the average estimated by 19 companies and consulting firms in the agro sector.

Despite the 4% drop compared to the previous cycle, the volume remains robust, while ethanol production shows a more significant reduction.

The ATR (Total Recoverable Sugar) was noted as the major negative surprise of this season.

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According to Agroconsult, the sugarcane fields have been showing signs of recovery, with expectations of a 3.1% increase in the crush for the 2026/27 harvest, reaching 615.24 million tons.

The consulting firm attributes this improvement to favorable weather conditions and consistent performance over the last few months.

Sugarcane Crush Shows Slight Retraction in Harvest

The survey indicates that the sugarcane crush will have a slight decline of 0.09% compared to the July survey, marking the lowest volume since the 2022/23 cycle.

Among the participating companies, Archer Consulting estimates the lowest processing at 581 million tons, while Sucden projects 610 million tons.

According to Ana Carolina Melo, coordinator of the sugar-energy and fertilizers areas at Agroconsult, “the good crush results seen in the last weeks and the improvement in climate forecasts for the coming months justify the upward revision of our estimates.”

Sugar Production Remains Stable

Sugar production is expected to experience a minimal decline of 1.4% compared to the previous harvest, reflecting the stability of the sector in the face of climatic and productive variations.

The ATR, an indicator measuring the quality of sugarcane for sugar production, showed a decline of 1.2%, considered the most negative point of the cycle.

This stability suggests that the sugar market will be able to absorb the lower crush without significant impacts on prices, keeping the agro sector competitive both in the domestic market and in exports.

Ethanol Expected to Register More Significant Decline

The total production of ethanol derived from sugarcane is expected to decrease by 3.1% compared to last harvest.

The decline reflects both the reduced crush and the lower ATR, indicating less efficiency in the production of the biofuel.

Agroconsult highlights that, even with the retraction, some regions have recorded consistent production growth, primarily due to the modernization of industrial processes and the recovery of sugarcane fields in recent weeks.

Outlook for the 2026/27 Harvest

Despite the negative projections for 2025/26, the expectation for the 2026/27 harvest is for gradual recovery.

Agroconsult predicts a crush of 615.24 million tons, reinforcing the growth potential of the Brazilian agro sector.

“The trend is for sugarcane processing to continue advancing, especially if weather conditions remain favorable and investments in agricultural technology are maintained,” said Ana Carolina Melo.

Participation of Major Consulting Firms and Companies in the Agro Sector

The survey for the 2025/26 harvest involved important players in the agro sector, such as:

Agroconsult;

Archer Consulting;

Bioagência;

BP Bioenergy;

BTG Pactual;

Conab;

Czarnikow;

ED&F Man;

Evolua;

Hedgepoint;

Itaú BBA;

Jalles;

Pecege;

Rabobank;

S&P Global;

Safras & Mercado;

SCA Brasil;

StoneX;

Sucden.

The broad participation of specialized consulting firms reinforces the reliability of estimates for crush, sugar production, and ethanol, providing strategic data for producers and investors in the agro sector.

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2025/26 Sugarcane Harvest Sees Decline; Ethanol Production Raises Concerns

2025/26 Sugarcane Harvest Expected to End at 596.97 Million Tons, with a Decrease in Ethanol Production; Agroconsult Predicts Recovery in 2026/27.

Major Oil, Gas, and Energy Event Will Take Place in Brazil: Macaé Energy Will Gather Petrobras, Equinor, Prio, Among Other Suppliers and Energy Executives for Business, Networking, and Employment Opportunities

Sugarcane Crush Shows Slight Retraction in Harvest

Sugar Production Remains Stable

Ethanol Expected to Register More Significant Decline

Outlook for the 2026/27 Harvest

Participation of Major Consulting Firms and Companies in the Agro Sector

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2025/26 Sugarcane Harvest Sees Decline; Ethanol Production Raises Concerns

2025/26 Sugarcane Harvest Expected to End at 596.97 Million Tons, with a Decrease in Ethanol Production; Agroconsult Predicts Recovery in 2026/27.

Major Oil, Gas, and Energy Event Will Take Place in Brazil: Macaé Energy Will Gather Petrobras, Equinor, Prio, Among Other Suppliers and Energy Executives for Business, Networking, and Employment Opportunities

Sugarcane Crush Shows Slight Retraction in Harvest

Sugar Production Remains Stable

Ethanol Expected to Register More Significant Decline

Outlook for the 2026/27 Harvest

Participation of Major Consulting Firms and Companies in the Agro Sector

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