In the first half of 2026, the United States’ tariff hike reduced Brazilian exports, weakened bilateral trade, and mainly affected overtaxed products, while sales to China and the European Union advanced, American imports declined, and the new additional 25% tariff increased uncertainties for Brazilian companies, workers, and national production chains.
The United States’ tariff hike pressured Brazilian exports in the first half of 2026, when shipments to the American market totaled US$ 17.4 billion. The value represents a 13% drop compared to the same period in 2025, with losses mainly concentrated in coffee, oil, and iron and steel products.
The information was published by Market Monitor on July 22, 2026, based on a survey by Amcham Brazil. The study shows that the United States’ share in Brazilian exports fell to 9.4%, the lowest percentage recorded since the beginning of the historical series in 1997.
Exports to the United States shrank by 13%
The Brazilian shipments to the American market lost strength during the first six months of 2026. The revenue of US$ 17.4 billion was below the result achieved in the same period of the previous year.
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The retraction occurred while Brazilian foreign trade was growing with other partners, indicating that the negative performance was not caused solely by a general reduction in the country’s external sales.
American participation fell to the lowest level since 1997
The United States accounted for 9.4% of Brazilian exports in the first half. This was the lowest percentage since 1997, when the historical series used in the survey began.
The decline reveals a loss of space for the American market in the Brazilian agenda. Even remaining as a relevant partner, the United States absorbed a smaller share of the products exported by Brazil.
Bilateral trade moved US$ 36.4 billion
The sum of exports and imports between Brazil and the United States reached US$ 36.4 billion between January and June. The result represents a reduction of 12.8% compared to the first half of 2025.
The decline affected both directions of the trade relationship. In addition to exporting less to the United States, Brazil also reduced purchases of goods produced in the American market.
Tariffed products concentrated the largest decline
According to Amcham Brazil, goods affected by tariffs recorded a 16.6% drop in exports to the United States. Among items not subject to the measures, the decline was 8.7%.
The difference reinforces the relationship between trade barriers and revenue loss. Overtaxed products showed a reduction almost twice as large as that observed in items spared from tariffs.
New 25% tariff increases pressure
An additional 25% tariff came into effect on July 22, 2026, following an investigation conducted by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, known by the acronym USTR.
The new measure adds pressure to a trade flow that was already showing a decline. Brazilian companies now face additional costs to sell certain products to the American market.
Exceptions protect part of the Brazilian agenda
Approximately 60% of Brazilian exports to the United States remain protected by exceptions, according to the survey cited by the source. This portion was not fully included in the new surcharges.
Despite the scope of the exceptions, many manufactured products were left out of the list. The industry tends to feel the effects more directly because several processed goods began to face additional taxation.
Coffee suffered the largest decline among the main products
Unroasted coffee experienced a 34.8% drop in sales to the United States during the first semester. It was the largest decline among the top ten Brazilian products traded with the American market.
The result affected a traditional item of the export agenda. The reduction shows that the U.S. tariffs reached sectors related to both agribusiness and industry.
Crude oil fell 30.4%
Brazilian crude oil exports to the United States decreased by 30.4%. The product appeared as the second most affected among the main items analyzed by Amcham.
This decline contributed significantly to the overall result, due to the weight of oil in the trade balance. Variations in product sales can quickly alter the amount traded between the two countries.
Iron and steel products lost ground
Semi-finished iron or steel products recorded a 21.7% drop in the period. The performance reinforces the impact of tariffs on Brazilian industrial segments.
There was also a 1.2% reduction in exports of pig iron or steel. The combination pressures production chains that depend on international contracts, scale, and demand predictability.
Pulp also ended the semester in decline
Brazilian pulp sales to the United States fell 9.4%. Although the decline was smaller than that observed in coffee, oil, and steel products, the result kept the sector among the most affected.
The performance shows that the losses were not restricted to a single economic chain. Different export sectors faced revenue reduction in the same market during the analyzed period.
Beef advanced despite the scenario
Not all products recorded a decline. Brazilian beef exports to the United States grew by 41% in the first semester of 2026.
The advance was the largest among the main items that increased their sales. The result demonstrates that tariff pressure did not affect all sectors with the same intensity.
Aircraft increased sales by 32.9%
Aircraft exports grew by 32.9% in the period. The performance helped partially offset the losses recorded in other segments of the Brazilian agenda.
Engineering equipment also advanced 23.8%. These results indicate that certain higher value-added products managed to expand their presence in the American market.
Electric machines and fuel oils grew
Exports of electric power machines increased by 16%, while fuel oils recorded a rise of 13.7%. Both are among the top five products with expansion in the semester.
The advances, however, were not enough to prevent the overall decline of 13%. The contraction of major items like coffee and oil outweighed the gains observed in other segments.
Brazilian global exports advanced 11.5%
While sales to the United States fell, Brazilian exports to the set of international markets grew by 11.5% in the first semester.
China played a central role in this movement, with a 21.9% increase in purchases of Brazilian products. The performance reinforced the difference between the American contraction and the expansion observed in other destinations.
European Union increased purchases from Brazil
Exports to the European Union grew by 12.8% in the same period. The advance contributed to sustaining the global performance of Brazilian foreign trade.
This shift may gradually alter the distribution of trade partners. When a market applies new barriers, exporting companies tend to seek destinations capable of absorbing part of the production.
June brought the first sign of recovery
After ten consecutive months of decline, the value of Brazilian exports to the United States increased by 3.7% in June. The result interrupted a negative sequence that began after the tariffs applied in August 2025.
The physical volume shipped, however, continued to decrease. This indicates that the improvement occurred due to higher prices or changes in the composition of products sold, and not by an increase in the quantity exported.
American imports also decreased
Brazilian purchases of products from the United States fell by 12.5% in the first semester. The reduction shows that the weakening of bilateral trade also affected American suppliers.
The largest drop occurred in machines and engines, whose imports decreased by 76%. The loss represented approximately $2.7 billion in purchases that were not made.
Imported aircraft and parts lost demand
Brazilian imports of aircraft and components produced in the United States fell by 14.6%. The decline corresponded to about US$ 100 million.
This performance reinforces the trend of reducing trade exchanges. The weakening was not concentrated only in commodities or Brazilian products affected by tariffs.
Section 301 maintains the risk of new measures
The American investigation was conducted based on Section 301, a mechanism of United States trade legislation that allows for the investigation of practices considered harmful to the country’s trade.
The procedure can result in tariffs and other trade measures. Amcham warned that new surcharges could further compromise trade between Brazil and the United States.
Amcham advocates negotiation between the countries
For the entity, the result of the first semester confirms that the bilateral relationship is going through a period of strong pressure. The organization advocates for an agreement capable of avoiding the expansion of barriers.
Predictability is important for companies that depend on contracts, investments, and logistical planning. Frequent changes in tariffs can increase costs and delay production and export decisions.
Industry faces risk of losing competitiveness
Manufactured products usually depend on complex production chains and margins calculated in advance. A surcharge can make a Brazilian product more expensive than alternatives available in the American market.
In this scenario, buyers may seek suppliers from other countries. The loss of contracts can affect production, investments, and jobs in companies most exposed to trade with the United States.
Conflict in the Middle East increases uncertainty
Amcham also mentioned the conflict in the Middle East as an additional pressure element. An increase in oil and natural gas costs can affect transportation, energy, and industrial production.
The effect is not limited to trade between Brazil and the United States. Higher fuel costs can spread through logistics chains and reduce the competitiveness of exported products.
Diversification reduces dependence on a single market
The growth in sales to China and the European Union shows that Brazil found demand in other destinations during the period of American contraction.
This diversification can reduce exposure to commercial decisions made by a single country. However, sectors specialized in the United States market cannot always quickly redirect their products.
Tariff hike expands competition for space in global trade
The United States tariff hike hit at a time when Brazilian foreign trade was growing in other regions. The combination of a 13% drop, a mere 9.4% share, and new surcharges reinforces the change in the relationship between the two markets.
The second half should show whether the reaction observed in June was just a one-off event or the start of a more consistent recovery. In your opinion, should Brazil prioritize an agreement with the United States or accelerate the search for new markets? Leave your opinion in the comments.
