IBGE Survey Shows That the Supermarket Sector Was the Main Driver of Restricted Retail Growth in the Country
Supermarket sales reached, in March 2025, the highest level since the beginning of the Monthly Trade Survey (PMC) conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which started in 2000. Consequently, the segment represented 56.4% of total sales in restricted retail and directly contributed to the positive result of national retail trade. The data was released on May 15, 2025.
Growth Rate Is Positive but Remains Moderate According to Technical Analysis by IBGE
Between August 2024 and March 2025, only February showed a more pronounced growth of 1.2%. This demonstrates that, although there is expansion, it occurs moderately. According to the PMC manager, Cristiano Santos, consumption behavior has been impacted by factors such as inflation and prioritization of essential items. For this reason, the sector continues to grow sustainably but with limitations.
Food Inflation Affects Sales Volume Throughout the Period
According to IBGE, the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for food exceeded 1% in four of the seven months between October 2024 and March 2025. This scenario affected consumption across different income brackets. Consequently, many families had to adapt their habits, prioritizing basic needs and restricting spending in other categories.
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National Retail Maintains Upward Trajectory in the First Quarter of 2025
Restricted retail, as a whole, grew by 0.8% in March compared to February. This result represents the third consecutive month of growth and confirms a trend of stabilization. The quarterly moving average, in turn, stood at 0.6%, which, according to IBGE, reinforces the perception that there is a positive trajectory in consumption, although conditioned by the economic context.
Stationery, IT, and Clothing Sectors Perform Above Average
In March 2025, six of the eight activities surveyed by the PMC showed growth. The highlight was the sector of books, newspapers, magazines, and stationery, which grew by 28.2%, influenced by the school calendar. The IT and office supply segments also recorded increases of 3.0%; personal and household articles, with 1.5%; pharmaceuticals, with 1.2%; and clothing and footwear, also with 1.2%. According to IBGE’s technical data, the results reflect seasonal adjustments and consumer behavior.
Furniture, Appliances, and Fuels Show Decline in the Month
Two segments showed negative performance in March. Furniture and appliances fell by 0.4%, while fuels and lubricants suffered a retraction of 2.1%. IBGE attributes these declines to factors such as a slowdown in consuming durable goods and variations in fuel prices, in addition to the influence of credit and household indebtedness.
Expanded Retail Also Registers Growth with Emphasis on Vehicles
The so-called expanded retail, which includes vehicles, parts, and construction materials, experienced a growth of 1.9% in March 2025. According to the IBGE survey, vehicles and auto parts grew by 1.7%, favored by better financing conditions, while construction materials registered an increase of 0.6%, driven by residential renovations. Experts cited the release of credit and small renovations as factors that positively influenced the results.
Annual Comparison Shows That Supermarket Sales Remain Stable While Other Sectors Decline
When comparing March 2025 to March 2024, the total volume of sales in retail fell by 1.0%. This negative performance was observed in five of the eight sectors monitored. The most significant declines were recorded in books, newspapers, and stationery, with a decrease of 6.9%, and in personal and household articles, with a retraction of 6.3%. However, some segments showed annual growth, such as furniture and appliances, with an increase of 3.3%; pharmaceuticals, with a rise of 2.1%; and clothing, with a 1.4% increase. IBGE reinforces that these results reflect specific dynamics, such as consumer behavior, seasonality, and purchasing power.
Continuity of Growth in Supermarket Sales Depends on Economic Stability
According to IBGE, the retail performance in the coming months will depend on three main factors. Controlling inflation, especially for food, is essential to keep consumption high. Access to credit needs to occur under sustainable conditions. Furthermore, the reinforcement of the population’s purchasing power will be decisive to sustain the growth rate. Therefore, although the data from the first quarter indicates a gradual recovery, the permanence of this movement requires macroeconomic stability and coordinated actions to stimulate conscious consumption.

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