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BlackRock Changes Course in the U.S. After U.S. Debt Reaches US$ 38.4 Trillion in December 2025 and Increases US$ 2.3 Trillion in 11 Months; With Rumors of Outflows of US$ 2.1 Trillion, the Manager Underweights Long Treasuries and Strengthens Global Diversification, Targeting Interest Rates and Currency Risk in 2026.
In 2026, BlackRock changes course in the U.S. amid signs of fiscal deterioration and capital flow changes, in a scenario in which the national debt is cited as US$ 38.4 trillion in December 2025, after rising from US$ 36.1 trillion in January 2025, an increase of US$ 2.3 trillion in 11 months.
The reorientation is described as a response to an environment where long Treasuries are being underweighted and global diversification gains priority, alongside discussions on the immediate impact on interest rates, liquidity, and portfolio composition, with the hypothesis of capital outflows and a gradual reduction of exposure to the dollar.
The Fiscal Trigger: Debt at US$ 38.4 Trillion and the Rising Cost of Interest
The starting point is the reading that U.S. debt is already a “real accumulated” figure, with books closed “as of December 2025,” and not a future projection.
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In the cited breakdown, U.S. debt would have jumped from US$ 36.1 trillion in January 2025 to US$ 38.4 trillion in December 2025, totaling US$ 2.3 trillion in 11 months.
In the same set of numbers, the cost of carrying shows as structural pressure: the U.S. government is described as paying over US$ 1 trillion per year just in interest, a figure presented as higher than expenses like defense and Medicare.
The central message is technical: when the interest expense grows, the market tends to demand a higher premium for long-term, putting pressure on the curve.
Liquidity and Money Supply: The Expansion of M2 and the Asset Price Environment
The text associates the maintenance of the system to monetary expansion and liquidity.
One cited marker is the increase in M2, which is said to have gone from US$ 15.5 trillion in February 2020 to US$ 21 trillion in April 2022, a rise of 40% in 26 months.
The proposed chain is that monetary expansion fuels inflation, asset bubbles, and inequality, with asset prices diverging from fundamentals.
Within this narrative, the stock market appears at historical highs while real wages remain stagnant, and home prices are cited as having risen 73% since 2019.
The message for 2026 is that if liquidity decreases and the market reprices fiscal risk, the assets most sensitive to long-term interest rates will likely be hit first.
Silent Exodus and Treasuries: The Argument for Reducing Foreign Positions
The course change is presented as part of a phase of “silent exodus,” with gradual selling of Treasury securities by large holders.
The cited examples include China, which is said to have held over US$ 1 trillion in Treasuries in 2013 and today is at US$ 760 billion, having sold more than US$ 300 billion in the last decade.
Another cited example is Japan, described as reducing its position by US$ 220 billion since 2022, “month after month.”
Reductions by Saudi Arabia, Belgium, Switzerland, and France are also mentioned.
The argument is completed with the Federal Reserve reducing its own balance sheet through quantitative tightening, letting securities mature without reinvesting, draining liquidity.
BlackRock Changes Course in the U.S.: What Changes in the Portfolio and Why the Long Term is the Target
It is in this context that BlackRock changes course in the U.S. with a strategy described as reducing exposure to U.S. Treasuries and increasing diversification outside the dollar axis.
The manager is described as the largest asset manager in the world, with over US$ 10 trillion in assets, and as having restructured portfolios by reducing exposure to Treasuries and increasing positions outside the U.S.
The list of cited reinforcements includes emerging markets, European infrastructure, Asian real estate, as well as gold and commodities, as a way to diversify beyond concentrated exposure to dollar-denominated assets.
The explicit target is long Treasuries, which are more sensitive to interest rate movements and changes in perception of fiscal and inflation risk.
Effect on Interest Rates and Portfolios in 2026: Duration, Dollar, and Concentration Risk
The effect described for 2026 is transmission through three channels.
First, interest rates: when long-term demand loses structural appeal, the market tends to demand higher returns to finance the State, affecting bond prices and the cost of capital.
Second, exchange rates: if demand for dollars falls and the flow diversifies, the dollar may gradually lose exclusivity, altering the pricing of global assets.
Third, portfolios: concentration in dollar-denominated assets increases vulnerability to simultaneous repricing of stocks, bonds, and real estate when liquidity tightens.
The proposed guidance in the text is to reinforce diversification by asset class and geography, citing currencies and jurisdictions as examples of currency and regulatory diversification, and pointing to gold as an asset that “maintains value” historically, in addition to commodities and real assets.
Rumors of Outflows and the Reading of “Underweighting” Long Treasuries
The topic includes rumors of outflows of US$ 2.1 trillion gaining traction, and the text connects this type of narrative to the behavior of “smart money” that moves ahead of headlines.
In this reading, “underweighting” long Treasuries is not a symbolic gesture: it is an allocation decision that reduces duration and seeks to protect the portfolio from shocks in long rates.
The operational design that appears is that of a calculated change: reducing what is most sensitive to rates and reinforcing what tends to benefit from global diversification, especially when confidence in fiscal balance and the liquidity regime comes into question.
In 2026, BlackRock changes course in the U.S. within a set of numbers that places the debt at US$ 38.4 trillion in December 2025 and describes a reduction in exposure to long Treasuries, with a strengthening of global diversification beyond the dollar.
The hypothesis of capital outflows, combined with tightening liquidity and the cost of interest, is presented as a vector capable of impacting interest rates, exchange rates, and asset pricing simultaneously.
If you are following this movement, the most realistic step is to review exposure to long-term and geographic concentration in the portfolio, testing scenarios of higher interest rates and shorter liquidity, without relying on a single axis of currency and market.
In your opinion, is the decision to underweight long Treasuries in 2026 more about interest rate risk or dollar risk and global flow?
Concordo com o comentário do Clidenor e acrescento minha impressão de terem se utilizado de uma IA para transcrever o artigo.
Acho que os redatores de artigos devem estar de folga e por isso resolveram apelar para um texto direcionando alguma IA para o desenvolvimento do assunto em um artigo.
Boa tarde! A matéria é muito boa, mas a impressão que dá é ué foi-me feita uma tradição literal das fontes originais em inglês, transparecendo baixo domínio tanto da língua inglesa quanto da nossa bela língua portuguesa no que tange a parte técnica, tanto econômica quanto de Finanças. Não se escreve assim nem se usa alguns dos jargões dessa forma na língua portuguesa. Sugiro maior pesquisa e estudo antes. Boa sorte e sucesso!
Bom dia: No atual cenario mundial as gtandes economias tendem a proteger seus ativos ; pois estamos vivendo um ambiente um tanto nerveso, por isso do gtandes investidores buscam divercificar seus ativos Como pode surgir outras moedas , como no caso do Brics e outras sistemas trsnsascionais a diversificacao e o caminho .