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Experts Evaluate That Maduro’s Capture After The U.S. Attack Opened An Explosive Phase In Venezuela, In Which The Dispute For Command Of The Country Left Being Just Political And Started To Involve The Military Top Brass Directly. The Dawn Operation That Removed The Dictator From The Miraflores Palace Did Not End The Crisis, It Just Changed The Type Of Conflict.
According to the Constitution, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez Would Be First In Line To Take Over, Followed By The President Of The National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez. But, As Researcher Vitélio Brustolin Explains, This Design Was Intended For Internal Situations, Not For A Scenario In Which A Foreign Force Deposes And Promotes The Capture Of Maduro. In Practice, The Succession Turned Into A Chess Game Where Each Piece Measures Strength Against The Armed Forces To See Who Can Actually Govern.
What Changes In Venezuela After The Capture Of Maduro
The Capture Of Maduro Broke The Little Predictability That Still Existed In Venezuelan Politics. Until The American Attack, The Regime Was Sustained By Three Main Pillars: Institutional Control, Military Support, And Systematic Repression Of The Opposition. With The Leader Off Stage, The Country Enters A Phase Of Transition Without A Clear Script.
Brustolin Reminds Us That, Technically, Delcy Rodríguez Has Already Presented Herself As Successor, Even Asking For Proof Of Life From Maduro And Trying To Take Command. The Problem Is That The Legitimacy Of This Succession Is Being Contestedin Side And Outside Of Venezuela, Which Aggravates The Uncertainty. The Doubt Is Not Only About Who Assumes The Role, But Who Actually Controls Ministries, State-Owned Enterprises, Strategic Companies, And, Most Importantly, The Barracks.
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Succession Line In Conflict With External Intervention
The Constitution Of Venezuela Provides That The Vice President Should Take Over In Case Of The President’s Absence, And Then, If Necessary, Pass The Sash To The President Of The National Assembly.
In Theory, It Would Be A Linear Process, With Delcy Rodríguez In Front And Jorge Rodríguez Right Behind.
However, The Capture Of Maduro By The United States Created An Exception Situation. Brustolin Highlights That The Constitutional Logic Was Crafted For Internal Crises, Not For A Deposition Promoted By A Foreign Attack.
Part Of The Political And Military Elite May Consider That This Kind Of Dismissal Breaks The Original Sense Of Succession And Opens Space For Different Interpretations Of The Same Rule.
This Is Where Concrete Risks Emerge: Groups Close To The Vice Presidency, The National Assembly, And Other Figures In The Regime May Attempt To Claim Command At The Same Time, Each Using The Constitution To Their Advantage.
Without A Minimum Consensus, The Country May See Parallel Governments And Divided Loyalties Arise, With A Direct Impact On The Streets, Institutions, And The Economy.
Armed Forces: From Support Of The Regime To Arbitrator Of The Post-Maduro Era
If Politics Entered A Short Circuit, The Spotlight Turns To The Only Actor Capable Of Deciding, In Practice, Who Governs: The Armed Forces.
According To Brustolin, Venezuela Has More Than 2,000 Generals For A Force Of About 340,000 Members, Including Paramilitary Forces, A Number Much Higher Than Countries Like Brazil, Which Has Approximately 300 Generals For A Similar Contingent.
This Inflation Is Not Coincidence. Over The Years, Maduro Has Distributed Positions And Privileges, Placing Military Officers In Charge Of Strategic Areas Such As State TV Channels, Mining Sectors, And Economic Control Bodies.
Reports Link Some Of These Officers To Illegal Activities, Such As Drug Trafficking And Parallel Currency Exchanges, Which Makes Staying In Power A Matter Of Personal Survival For Many Of Them.
In A Scenario Of Capture Of Maduro, The Central Question Is: Which Faction Of The Armed Forces Will Agree To Negotiate A Transition And Which Will Prefer To Resist To Preserve Privileges And Avoid Accountability?
The Answer To This Question Defines Whether The Country Is Heading Towards A Pact Exit Or Internal Confrontation.
Amnesty, Civil War, And Pressure On The Military
One Of The Proposals On The Table Even Before The Capture Of Maduro Came From Candidate Edmundo Gonzalez In The 2024 Elections: Offer Some Type Of Amnesty To The Military To Facilitate A Transition Without Bloodshed.
The Idea Is To Create An Incentive For Generals To Leave The Core Of The Regime Without Fearing Immediate Arrest And Trials.
Brustolin Highlights That Gonzalez Sees Amnesty As A Possible Barrier Against A Civil War. If Maduro’s Fall Is Followed By Immediate And Unconditional Punishment Promises, The Trend Is For Armed Sectors To Fight To The End To Avoid Losing Everything.
On The Other Hand, An Amnesty Too Broad May Be Seen As Impunity In Light Of Accusations Of Persecution, Torture, And Murder Documented In UN Reports.
This Dilemma Places Venezuela At A Crossroads: How To Balance Minimum Justice For The Victims, Political Stability, And The Demobilization Of Military Personnel Involved With The Regime?
Without A Reasonable Agreement, The Combination Of Arms, Fear, And A Desire For Revenge May Push The Country Into A Large-Scale Internal Conflict.
The Civilian Population Caught In The Crossfire
While Political And Military Elites Calculate Moves, The Venezuelan Population Remains The Most Vulnerable Part Of The Board. According To Brustolin, Society Has Suffered For More Than 25 Years Under An Authoritarian Regime, With Successive Economic Crises, Mass Migration, And Deterioration Of Basic Services.
In A Post-Capture Of Maduro Tension Scenario, Civilians Have No Means To Face Well-Equipped Armed Forces.
The Population, Largely Unarmed And Already Exhausted, Runs The Risk Of Becoming Hostage To Clashes Between Rival Groups Competing For Ministries, Territories, And Sources Of Income.
Any Miscalculation In The Transition Could Result In Harsher Repression, Forced Displacements, And Increased Violence In Major Cities And Borders.
What Is At Stake The Day After The Capture Of Maduro
The Capture Of Maduro Did Not Resolve The Venezuelan Crisis, It Just Inaugurated A New And More Unstable Phase. What Is At Stake Now Is Whether Venezuela Will Be Able To Use This Break As A Starting Point To Rebuild Institutions And Negotiate A Less Traumatic Exit, Or Whether The Country Will Slide Into A Spiral Of Radicalization, With The Armed Forces Divided And The Real Threat Of A Civil War.
For This, It Will Be Decisive To Observe Three Movements:
1. How Delcy Rodríguez And Jorge Rodríguez Position Themselves In The Dispute For Political Succession.
2. What Kind Of Guarantee Or Amnesty Will Be Offered To Military And Civilians Linked To The Regime’s Core.
3. What Will Be The Role Of The International Community, Which Can Both Mediate And Amplify Tensions Depending On How It Acts.
In The End, Behind Acronyms, Positions, And Strategies, There Is A Tired Population That Sees The Fall Of The Dictator As A Chance To Turn The Page, But Fears To Pay Again For Decisions Made Behind Closed Doors.
Given This Scenario, Do You Believe That A Negotiated Transition After The Capture Of Maduro Is Possible, Or Do You Think Venezuela Is Closer To A Civil War Than A Real Political Agreement?
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