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Russia Criticizes Attacks on Iran, Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Reduces Oil Tanker Traffic by 90%, and Crisis in the Middle East Could Generate Strategic Effects in the Ukraine War
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East following attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran has generated a reaction from Russia and prompted economic and military effects that could influence the war in Ukraine, as well as impact the global energy market.
The offensive against Iran was criticized by the Russian government, an ally of Tehran. For Moscow, the episode reinforces what officials describe as military interventions by the West to topple adversarial governments.
This interpretation strengthens the narrative defended by President Vladimir Putin about the need for preventive actions to protect Russian sovereignty.
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On Wednesday, Russia accused the United States of using an “imaginary threat” represented by Iran as a justification for interfering in the constitutional order.
According to the state agency Tass, Putin classified the attacks and the death of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as a “cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law.”
Military Relationship Between Russia and Iran in the Context of the Conflict in the Middle East
The partnership between Moscow and Tehran has gained importance in recent years, especially in the military field.
Iran is identified as one of the main suppliers of drones used by Russia in the conflict against Ukraine.
This cooperation has deepened the strategic ties between the two countries. Despite the relationship, there is no indication that Russia intends to intervene militarily in defense of Iran in the current conflict in the Middle East.
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Impact on Global Oil Trade
On Monday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and declared that any ship attempting to cross the passage would be set on fire.
The blockade has virtually paralyzed the circulation of commercial vessels in the strategic route. Approximately 20% of all oil transported by sea in the world passes through the strait.
Data released on Wednesday, the 4th, by maritime analysis consultancy Kpler indicates that oil tanker traffic has dropped by 90% in just one week following the Iranian announcement.
The partial disruption of the route has already caused an increase in global oil and gas prices, which are the main sources of revenue for Russia.
Potential Economic Gains for Moscow Amid the Conflict in the Middle East
The reduction of energy flow in the region could alter the dynamics of the international oil trade. Major importers, such as China and India, may increase their purchase of Russian oil.
According to experts, the scenario could create economic advantages for Moscow. Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre and a specialist in the Russian energy sector, told the British newspaper The Guardian that the blockade of the route favors the country.
According to him, when a significant portion of global oil supply and maritime trade is interrupted, the impact tends to benefit alternative exporters like Russia.
Impact of the Conflict in the Middle East on the War Between Russia and Ukraine
In addition to the economic effects, the regional crisis could produce indirect repercussions on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
A potential increase in U.S. military involvement in the Middle East could reduce the availability of weapons for Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on Monday that the priority given to the security of allies in the region could hinder the delivery of air defense systems.
In an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, Zelensky said that Ukraine may face difficulties acquiring Patriot missiles and other military equipment.
The Ukrainian leader also noted that attacks by Iran against Israel in June of last year had already caused delays in some weapons deliveries.
According to Zelensky, the United States and its allies in the Middle East may need these systems for self-defense, which would reduce the availability of equipment intended for Ukraine.
For Moscow, a potential redistribution of American military resources and those of its allies could ease pressure on Russian forces active on the Ukrainian front, creating a new strategic scenario within the current conflict in the Middle East and its global effects.
With information from Veja.
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