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International Space Station Expected To Fall In 2030, But A Proposal Aims To Avoid Ocean Dumping And Reuse 450 Tons Of Materials In Orbit

Written by Noel Budeguer
Published on 16/12/2025 at 21:20
O descarte da Estação Espacial Internacional no Pacífico levanta dúvidas sobre desperdício e o futuro da gestão de recursos fora da Terra
O descarte da Estação Espacial Internacional no Pacífico levanta dúvidas sobre desperdício e o futuro da gestão de recursos fora da Terra
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With Construction Started in 1998 and Completed in 2011, the ISS Could Gain a New Destination Instead of Falling into the Pacific as Space Debris

The first idea was always straightforward: deorbit the International Space Station in 2030 and guide its descent to Point Nemo in the Pacific. This would mean that one of the largest structures ever assembled outside of Earth would end up on the ocean floor.

However, an unexpected proposal changed the tone of the conversation. Instead of destroying the ISS, the suggestion arose to repurpose the station as a base for orbital recycling and fueling a future space industry.

What Happened and Why It Caught Attention

The ISS has been in operation for over a quarter of a century and has become a reference as a microgravity laboratory. Construction began in 1998, assembly was completed in 2011, and since then the station has accumulated wear and tear.

Over time, air leaks, aging modules, and rising costs to keep everything operational have emerged. This scenario pushed the program toward a planned end, with a controlled descent into the Pacific.

Why the ISS Should Fall into Point Nemo in 2030

The closure plans for deorbiting in 2030 and falling into Point Nemo, a remote area known for receiving space debris. The goal is to reduce risks and control the impact.

The plan is already in motion and involves a tug to guide the station to the end of its mission. In this context, SpaceX is already working on the system that will support the final stage.

The Proposal to Recycle the Station Instead of Destroying It

The idea was presented by Greg Vialle, founder of the American startup Lunexus Space. The concept is to keep the ISS in orbit to repurpose its structure as a source of raw materials.

The station weighs about 450 tons and contains metals and components designed to withstand years in the space environment, such as aerospace aluminum and titanium. The proposal treats this volume as an industrial asset, not as scrap.

The Numbers That Raise Doubts About Ocean Disposal

The proposal accounts for an estimated value of more than 1.5 billion dollars in materials that would be lost with the fall into the sea. Additionally, the safe disposal operation involves an additional cost of nearly 1 billion.

The question behind the debate is simple and uncomfortable: why destroy something so valuable when it is already in orbit and could have future utility.

Recycling in Space Seems Logical, But the Technique Still Weighs Against It

Transforming the ISS into a source of materials requires dismantling, cutting, processing, and reusing parts in microgravity. This requires robots, new spacecraft, unprecedented protocols, and significant investment to get started.

There is also the central doubt about economic viability. The European Space Agency has indicated that the profitability of orbital recycling is still unclear.

The NASA has evaluated similar proposals and concluded that, for now, none would be ready in time.

What Could Happen from Now On

Even if the ISS is not the ideal point to initiate this shift, the discussion touches on something larger: who will dominate the industrial infrastructure in space. China is advancing with its own station, while the United States is targeting private stations and the Moon comes back to the center of strategy.

The clock keeps ticking. In a few years, the ISS could fall into the ocean, and the proposal for reuse raises the question of whether destruction was really the only way out.

The final decision still points to 2030, but the conversation has already shifted focus. Now, the fate of the station has also become a test of how humanity intends to deal with resources and structures in orbit.

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Noel Budeguer

Sou jornalista argentino baseado no Rio de Janeiro, com foco em energia e geopolítica, além de tecnologia e assuntos militares. Produzo análises e reportagens com linguagem acessível, dados, contexto e visão estratégica sobre os movimentos que impactam o Brasil e o mundo. 📩 Contato: noelbudeguer@gmail.com

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