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A study conducted by the consulting firm PSR assures that, even with a recovery featuring exponential economic growth after the decline caused by the covid-19 pandemic, Brazil will not need new energy in the system until 2024.
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With the studied circumstances, energy consumption will reach an average of 80.5 GW in the last year of the evaluated scenario (2024), compared to the 85.4 GW average that were contracted and a reserve energy of 3.8 GW, resulting in an oversupply of 11% of the capacity.
This oversupply would be the same for the year 2023; however, in other years, the surplus would be even greater, reaching 15% in 2022, 17% in 2021, and 23% in this year, 2020. Given the current scenario, without a rapid economic recovery, PSR estimates that by 2024, consumption will only reach an average of 77.3 GW, leaving the excess supply around 15%.
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The consultant PSR emphasizes the importance of discussing power procurement, as Brazil has high intermittency in its energy system. This intermittency applies not only to wind and solar generation but also to hydroelectric plants, which suffer from irregular reservoir volumes. An example is the Belo Monte Hydroelectric Plant, where the difference in production from the dry period to the rainy periods reaches 25 times.
For future procurement after the year 2024, PSR advocates that the system must operate with tools that ensure power supply. Furthermore, factors such as the economy and the outcomes of the A-4 and A-5 energy auctions will be significantly influential in reaching this definition.
Bernardo Bezerra, technical director of PSR, also mentions that among the possibilities for power procurement, the best options are those that can be dispatched, such as reversible hydroelectric plants, batteries, and demand response, as they do not add energy to the system but rather change the timing of when energy will be available.
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