According to Fernanda Delgado, IBP's corporate executive director, with Russia losing space as a supplier due to the war, oil producers in Brazil may benefit due to the imbalance in the market

A barrel of oil at around US$ 100, the highest price since 2014, could benefit Brazil, a country that in the last decade has become a major producer and exporter of oil. According to Fernanda Delgado, the fact that Russia is losing space as a supplier will open up the possibility of importing from other suppliers, which may reactivate Iran, Venezuela and will also bring possibilities for Brazil, due to its already consolidated and not dormant market. In the current scenario, Brazil can benefit from the high demand and gain in international market share, which will encourage production in Brazil.

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For Flávio Conde, a professor at Unesp, the effects of the war on the oil sector in Brazil are divided into two phases: before and after the readjustment in fuel prices by Petrobras. Previously, the benefited area was that of crude oil producers that import a barrel at international market prices, since the producers' profit is proportional to the price of a barrel of oil. Petrobras, on the other hand, only benefits when it readjusts fuel prices at refineries, so that when it imports oil at a higher price on the foreign market, it avoids losses.

According to Conde “Before the readjustment, I calculated a loss of R$ 12 billion in the first quarter with that difference. It was an additional expense to not pass on prices”.

Petrobras readjustment takes about 60 days

Flávio Conde considers that Petrobras' readjustments take an average of 50 to 60 days, a reasonable time when the market is in normal conditions, but not currently, with the sudden increase in the barrel of oil.

The former president of the ANP and current president of Enauta, Décio Oddone estimates that for a country with more expensive oil, the losses will be, on average, three times the gains. For Décio, compared to the time when the country was completely dependent on barrel imports, the current scenario is already a step forward. Décio says that “For every increase of US$ 1 in the value of a barrel of oil, Brazil has an increase of around R$ 1 billion in revenue, but the impact of increases in the main derivatives is around R$ 3 billion a year. more in costs to society”.

Oddone explains that Brazil is still dependent on the import of petroleum derivatives for domestic consumption, even having reached self-sufficiency in crude oil. He adds that in the 80s, the oil crisis was a double crisis, because in addition to high prices, Brazil still had an external debt crisis.

The former director of the ANP, David Zylbersztajn, reinforces that the harm caused by oil at such a high price may outweigh the benefits. “For Petrobras, a high barrel is a good deal, but it is negative for those who need to buy. Oil is an input for many things, from road transport and aviation to gas cylinders. There will be no way, everything will be more expensive.” says Zylbersztajn.

Source: CNN