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Study Points to Record Lithium Levels in the McDermitt Caldera, Between Nevada and Oregon. Assessments Suggest US$ 1.5 Trillion, With Effects for Tesla, Industrial Policies, and Local Communities.
The McDermitt Caldera, a supervolcano on the border between Nevada and Oregon, has returned to the center of energy debate after research suggested one of the largest lithium deposits on the planet. The area is home to the Thacker Pass project, a focus of investments and legal controversy.
For the industry, the discovery could lower battery costs and support the transition to electric vehicles in the U.S. For Elon Musk, who is building a lithium refinery in Texas, the move is likely to facilitate strategic supplies.
The geological formation of the caldera dates back to about 16.4 million years ago, when a colossal eruption created conditions for mineral concentration. Starting in 2023, new scientific data reinforced the hypothesis of hydrothermal enrichment with lithium in local clays.
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At the same time, government and companies are accelerating the construction of a domestic battery supply chain. In 2025, reports indicated U.S. government equity participation in Lithium Americas, the developer of Thacker Pass, and adjustments to a significant federal loan. The issue mobilizes environmentalists and Indigenous peoples who question impacts and prior consultation.
What Was Discovered in the McDermitt Caldera
Peer-reviewed research indicates lithium levels of 1.3% to 2.4% in illite clays in the southern sector of the caldera, well above concentrations observed in common smectitic clays. This differential in content is what supports the expectation of high economic potential in the region.
The deposit is located around Thacker Pass, where Lithium Americas received federal regulatory approval and began construction in 2023. The project is cited as the largest lithium sedimentary resource in the U.S. and a pillar of a local battery supply chain.
The caldera measures 45 x 35 km and is part of the Yellowstone hotspot trail. The reference age for the massive eruption is ~16.4 Ma. These geological data help explain the anomalous concentration of lithium in lake sediments.
Why This Could Favor Elon Musk and Tesla
Tesla is progressing with a lithium refinery in Robstown (Texas) to produce lithium hydroxide at scale, with a goal capable of sustaining up to 1 million EVs/year at full capacity. Musk has described refining as a business that is like “printing money” due to the scarcity of global capacity. More domestic supply of ore or concentrate reduces costs and volatility at the refining stage.
Although GM is the industrial partner in Thacker Pass, any increase in supply in the U.S. is likely to benefit the entire supply chain, including Tesla, through pricing and logistics. Competition for long-term contracts with miners and refiners remains intense.
Reports from 2025 cite estimates that the caldera could supply hundreds of millions of EVs, a hypothetical figure that depends on recovery, technology, and price. Use with caution: this is a sector media projection, not a measured reserve.
Impact on Energy Security and the Battery Market
Domestic lithium production is a key piece in reducing import dependence and exposure to tariffs and price shocks.
In 2025, the press reported that the U.S. Department of Energy was moving to acquire a minority stake in Lithium Americas and in the JV with GM, linked to a billion-dollar loan for Thacker Pass. The goal is to accelerate supply and anchor the supply chain in the U.S.
If the average content in economically mineable areas proves to be at a high level (with peaks of 2.4% measured in samples), this improves margins and viability compared to low-content clays. Nevertheless, capex, water, reagents, and licensing remain critical variables.
In your view, does the industrial benefit outweigh the environmental and cultural risks? And who should lead access to this lithium: major automakers, new miners, or partnerships with local communities? Leave your comment.
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