StoneX revises projections for the global cocoa market after raising the estimate for the 2025/26 harvest and significantly reducing the expected surplus for 2026/27 due to the increased risk of an intense El Niño and worsening crop conditions in West Africa.
The global cocoa market has regained attention after StoneX revised its projections for the upcoming harvests. Although the consultancy raised the surplus estimate for 2025/26, the expectation for 2026/27 was drastically reduced due to the increased risk of a strong El Niño.
Furthermore, studies by StoneX itself indicate that El Niño episodes reduce, on average, 1.7% of the world’s cocoa production, maintaining the phenomenon as one of the main risk factors for the global supply of the commodity.
Current harvest gains momentum, but the scenario changes for the coming years
In the fourth revision of the global balance for the 2025/26 harvest, released by StoneX, the surplus projection increased from 247 thousand to 422 thousand tons.
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According to the consultancy, the revision was motivated by the update of official statistics from Ivory Coast, released during the harvest monitoring, which began to indicate greater cocoa availability.
Even so, only part of this adjustment was considered. As explained by Lucca Bezzon in a StoneX report, foreign trade data and export flows do not yet fully confirm the volume reported by the official statistics.
As a result, the consultancy began to estimate a faster recomposition of global stocks, after the period of tighter supply observed between the 2021/22 and 2023/24 harvests.
El Niño leads StoneX to reduce almost all the surplus forecast for 2026/27
Despite the improvement observed in the current harvest, the scenario changes when the analysis moves to 2026/27.
StoneX reduced the surplus projection from 149 thousand to just 25 thousand tons, adopting a more cautious stance in light of the new climate perspectives.
According to the consultancy, this revision mainly considers the higher probability of a strong El Niño and the reports of lower pod counts in the main producing regions of West Africa.
Additionally, the rains recorded during June 2026 have exacerbated concerns about the upcoming harvest.
According to StoneX, the excess moisture caused soil waterlogging, favored an increase in disease incidence, and reduced the number of fruits in important producing areas.
As a consequence, the regional production forecast for 2026/27 was revised downward.
Besides the weather, the consultancy highlighted that the temporary suspension of new forward sales of the 2026/27 crop by Côte d’Ivoire also increased uncertainties about the productive potential of the next season.
Côte d’Ivoire leads changes in West Africa projections
Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer, had its estimate for the 2025/26 crop increased by approximately 160 thousand tons, reaching about 2 million tons.
However, for 2026/27, the projection was reduced to 1.775 million tons, reflecting increased concerns about crop development in the face of climate risk.
Meanwhile, in Ghana, the recovery expectation for 2025/26 was maintained.
On the other hand, for 2026/27, the estimate fell to 595 thousand tons, incorporating less favorable climatic conditions associated with the possible El Niño.
Additionally, Nigeria and Cameroon also had slight reductions in their projections, following the deterioration of climate prospects in the region.
Brazil continues on a positive trajectory despite climate risks
While West Africa faces a scenario of greater caution, Brazil maintains perspectives considered favorable.
According to Lucca Bezzon, the 2025/26 crop is on track to record one of the best performances in recent years.
This result is attributed to more favorable weather conditions and increased investments made since 2024, a period marked by the high cocoa price cycle.
For the 2026/27 crop, StoneX projects a production between 210 thousand and 215 thousand tons.
According to the consultancy, part of the climate risks may be offset by the expansion of the cultivated area and the higher technological level adopted by Brazilian producers.
In Ecuador, the expectation remains above 600 thousand tons in 2025/26.
Meanwhile, Peru continues to show growth prospects, without a consistent history of losses related to El Niño.
Climate projections highlight attention for the end of 2026 and beginning of 2027
The projections from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the United States reinforce the concern presented by StoneX.
According to the CPC, there is an 81% probability of El Niño reaching very strong intensity between October and December 2026.
Additionally, there is a 97% chance of the phenomenon remaining active at the beginning of 2027, maintaining high risk for the main producing regions.
Demand continues gradual recovery, points out StoneX
On the demand side, StoneX maintained the expectation of stability in global grinding during the 2025/26 harvest.
For 2026/27, however, the consultancy slightly reduced the growth forecast to approximately 2%, estimating grinding close to 4.75 million tons.
According to the analysis, the recent recovery in industrial activity was mainly driven by stock replenishment.
At the same time, global consumption remains below historical potential, although it continues to show a gradual recovery, according to StoneX’s updated projections.
And you, do you believe that a strong El Niño could impact cocoa prices and products like chocolate in the coming years? Share your opinion in the comments.
