Portuguese 
With reservoirs below normal, the Panama Canal will limit vessel passages starting in October, as shippers face delays, higher fees, alternative routes, and risks of passing costs onto global commodity prices
The Panama Canal will again reduce the number of crossings starting in October 2026 due to water shortages associated with the El Niño phenomenon. The route, which accounts for about 5% of global maritime trade, is expected to operate with fewer than 30 vessels per day, down from a peak of 40 daily crossings in recent months.
This limitation comes at a time when the 80-kilometer waterway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is being heavily utilized.
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According to information published by RFI, disruptions in the Middle East have increased the importance of the Panama route for certain trade flows, even as the availability of water needed for the canal’s operation has decreased.
The issue is directly related to the operation of the canal itself. The Panama Canal relies on rainwater stored in two large artificial lakes to facilitate the movement of ships.
Between May and August, the volume of water received in the basin was 44% below normal levels.
Crossings Have Decreased from 36 to Fewer Than 30 per Day
The reduction will not happen all at once. The number of authorized crossings has been gradually decreased as the water situation worsens.
In August, 36 passages per day were permitted. The limit was reduced to 34 at the beginning of September and to 32 by mid-month. In October, the average is expected to fall below 30 ships daily.
This difference is significant given the volume of goods that use the route. In 2024, products valued at $444 billion crossed the Panama Canal.
The passage prevents vessels from needing to navigate around South America to travel between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
In recent months, however, demand has been pressured by disruptions involving the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.
According to materials published by RFI, some Asian countries have increased their purchases from the United States, a move that has also boosted the use of the Panama route.
Thus, the canal administration faces two opposing forces: demand for crossings remains high, while the amount of available water limits the number of vessels that can be accommodated.
Fewer slots already raise the cost to cross the canal
The reduction in capacity has direct effects for shipping companies. With fewer available slots, ships may face longer waiting times or pay high fees to secure priority.
At the end of August, a cargo ship paid US$5.3 million to guarantee a priority passage through the Panama Canal. According to available information, this amount set a record.
Another alternative is to temporarily abandon the route. Some operators are circumnavigating South America, while others are transferring part of their cargo to trains, mainly in Mexico.
These options, however, make transit longer and more expensive. The increase in logistical costs may eventually reach consumers if the additional expenses are incorporated into the final prices of goods.
The impact also varies depending on each economy’s reliance on the passage. One-fourth of Ecuador’s foreign trade uses the Panama Canal. In Chile and Peru, the reported share is 22%.
El Niño affects the main water source of the canal
The situation is linked to the current El Niño episode, a phenomenon that causes changes in temperatures, winds, and precipitation in different parts of the world.
In Panama, the effect highlighted in reports is the reduction of rains that supply reservoirs used in the operation of the waterway.
With less stored water, the administration can release fewer vessels. The series of cuts expected for October exacerbates a situation that has been observed since August.
The consequences may extend beyond the canal itself. A route used by approximately 5% of global maritime trade operating below capacity forces companies to compete for slots, wait longer, or seek alternative paths.
Starting in October, therefore, the new limitation is expected to reduce daily crossings by approximately ten compared to recent peak utilization periods, when the canal operated with up to 40 ships per day.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate phenomenon known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
It occurs when the surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than normal, accompanied by changes in winds, atmospheric pressure, and rainfall patterns.
According to NOAA, El Niño and La Niña events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and twelve months, although some persist for longer.
These changes in the ocean and atmosphere can alter temperature and precipitation patterns in different regions of the globe.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) explains that El Niño typically contributes to higher global temperatures and can lead to heavy rainfall and flooding in some areas, while others experience drier conditions.
However, the effects vary depending on the intensity, duration, and progression of each event.
This report was produced based on information from Stéphane Geneste published by RFI on September 17, 2026.
