Portuguese 
War, Naval Blockade, and Decline in Oil Exports Hit Iranian Economy, Shrinking GDP by 10.1% and Intensifying Pressure on Inflation, Trade, Industry, Services, and Currency Value.
The Iranian economy shrank by 10.1% in a year, pressured by the war against the United States and Israel, difficulties in exporting oil, and the naval blockade imposed by Washington. The oil and gas sector, a major source of the country’s foreign revenue, experienced the deepest contraction.
According to a report published by Al Jazeera on Sunday (September 21), data from Iran’s Statistics Center show that the decline in Gross Domestic Product occurred between March 21 and June 20, 2026, the first quarter of the Persian calendar.
The analyzed period covers the early months of the war, which began on February 28. Year-on-year, activities related to crude oil and natural gas plummeted by 26.4%. When the oil sector is removed from the calculations, Iran’s GDP shows a contraction of 4.6%.
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The crisis also hit other important areas. Industry and mining fell by 14.7%, while services declined by 4.8% and manufacturing activity dropped by 2.5%. Agriculture was the only exception among the highlighted sectors, growing by 2.3%.
Oil Exports Plummeted During the War
Iran’s oil exports were severely affected by the U.S. naval blockade. Estimates from companies Kpler and Vortexa indicate that shipments of crude and condensate oil fell from approximately 2 million barrels per day in March to 740,000 barrels per day in July.
In August, the volume reportedly decreased further, hovering between 220,000 and 255,000 barrels per day. TankerTrackers.com informed Reuters that 29 tankers transporting 36.11 million barrels of oil were stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.
Vortexa also estimated that Iranian oil stored on vessels declined from 135 million barrels at the end of July to 107 million barrels by the end of August.
Inflation and Devaluation Worsen Economic Pressure
In addition to the loss of energy revenues, Iran faces high inflation and significant currency devaluation. The average inflation rate over 12 months reached 69.9%, while the prices of food, beverages, and tobacco surged at nearly double that rate.
Official unemployment reached 9.1% during the spring. Meanwhile, the rial depreciated from approximately 1 million per dollar a year ago to over 2.2 million per dollar in early September.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on September 6 that the country’s total trade had fallen between 25% and 35%, with a greater impact on imports. As economic pressure increases, Tehran conditions ending the war on lifting the naval blockade and releasing Iranian assets frozen abroad.
